构建新型零碳热力系统是实现我国能源转型和碳中和目标的重要任务。热泵是新型零碳热力系统的关键组成，以确定热泵的低温热源来源、促进热泵尽量使用零碳或低碳的电力为应用要点。本文立足我国热力需求特点和资源禀赋条件，探讨了新型零碳热力系统建设的思路：对于南方建筑采暖、农村建筑采暖等低强度用热需求，应通过空气源、土壤源、地表水源热泵，使用电力高效制备；对于北方建筑采暖、工业低压蒸气和热水等高强度用热需求，可利用核电火电余热、工业余热、数据中心余热等人类活动排放的低品位余热作为低温热源，结合热泵实现供热。在此基础上，提出了零碳热力供给总体思路，分析了构建余热共享系统的关键技术以及热电协同对新型电力系统建设的贡献度，讨论了新型热力系统建设的投资规模、经济回报、减碳潜力。研究认为，应高度重视并加快新型零碳热力系统建设，可从依靠使用者进行建设和改造的分散式热泵、依靠国家统一规划来推动建设的余热共享系统两方面出发，配套必要的保障措施，充分发挥新型零碳热力系统潜在的经济社会效益，加快实现能源系统低碳转型和碳中和目标。

The development of a new zero-carbon thermal system is critical for achieving China’s energy transition and carbon neutrality goals. Heat pumps are a key enabling technology in this process, and their successful deployment hinges on two factors: identifying reliable low-temperature heat sources and ensuring that their electricity consumption is supplied by zero-carbon or low-carbon power. Based on China’s specific heating demands and resource endowments, this study proposes a construction pathway for zero-carbon thermal systems. For low-intensity heating demands—such as space heating in southern regions and rural buildings—air-source, ground-source, and surface water-source heat pumps should be employed to efficiently provide heat using electricity. For high-intensity heating demands—such as space heating in northern regions, low-pressure steam and hot water for industry—low-grade waste heat from human activities, including residual heat from nuclear and thermal power plants, industrial processes, and data centers, can be harvested as the low-temperature heat source and upgraded via heat pumps to meet supply needs. Building on this framework, the study presents an integrated roadmap for realizing zero-carbon thermal supply in China. It focuses on the technological architecture required to establish large-scale waste heat sharing networks, and analyses how coordinated operation between heating and power systems can contribute to the development of a new-type power system. Finally, it provides a comprehensive assessment of the investment requirements, economic returns, and carbon reduction potential of zero-carbon thermal infrastructure. This study recommends that the construction of zero-carbon thermal systems be prioritized and accelerated. Efforts should be advanced along two parallel pathways: (1) decentralized heat pumps deployed and retrofitted by end users, and (2) centralized waste heat sharing networks implemented through national-level planning. These should be supported by appropriate enabling policies and safeguards to fully unlock the economic and social benefits of zero-carbon thermal systems, thereby accelerating the low-carbon transformation of the energy system and the realization of carbon neutrality goals.