人本协同城市早期预警体系的建设思路与发展策略

欧阳敏 , 程泽楷 , 张亦琼 , 马佳欣 , 李志远 , 罗凌 , 谢思琴 , 王红卫 , 丁烈云

中国工程科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5) : 279 -293.

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中国工程科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5) : 279 -293. DOI: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2025.08.035
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人本协同城市早期预警体系的建设思路与发展策略

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A People-Centered Collaborative Framework and Development Strategies for Urban Early-Warning Systems

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气候变化与快速城镇化叠加,我国城市灾害呈现多灾种、级联、快速演化等特征,预警信息“到人 ‒ 看懂 ‒ 照做”的末端转化仍是突出短板。本文秉持“人既是预警服务对象也是参与主体”的观点,提出了人本协同城市早期预警体系(EWS)的建设思路与发展策略,可作为联合国倡导的“人人享有早期预警”理念的本土化实践方案。在阐释城市EWS基本概念、人本协同的发展导向基础上,系统辨识了人本协同城市EWS建设的基本态势,尤其是级联危险链识别与响应不足、基于影响的预测与行动转化不够、公众制度化参与及善意免责缺位等现实应用挑战,政策窗口、技术突破、终端普及等方面的发展机遇。提出了具有“三级主体 ‒ 双链支撑 ‒ 技术赋能”核心结构的人本协同城市EWS建设框架,分析了涉及的关键要素及其耦合关系。建议采取以数据和技术为底座、闭环一体化能力,完善制度建设、明晰责任并提供保障,以社区为纽带、深化组织与动员机制,开展试点和评估、扩大建设范围并持续改进等发展策略,全面增强我国城市早期预警能力。

Abstract

The combination of climate change and rapid urbanization has led to the emergence of multi-hazard, cascading, and fast-evolving urban disasters in China. The final stage of early warning information transmission, from "reaching individuals ‒ understanding ‒ acting," remains a prominent shortcoming. This study, adhering to the view that "people are both recipients of warning services and active participants," proposes a people-centered collaborative framework and development strategies for urban early-warning systems (EWS), serving as a localized practice of the United Nation's Early Warnings for All initiative. Building on the clarification of urban EWS concepts and the orientation of people-centered collaboration, we identify the current conditions and challenges of developing such systems. The challenges include insufficient identification and response to cascading hazard chains, inadequate impact-based prediction and conversion into actions, and lack of institutionalized public participation and good-faith immunity. We also highlight development opportunities arising from policy momentum, technological advances, and widespread digital endpoints. An integrated construction framework is proposed, featuring a core structure of "three-tier actors ‒ twin-chain support ‒ technology enablement," together with an analysis of key elements and their coupling. Finally, we suggest development strategies including building unified data and technology foundations with closed-loop capacities, improving institutional design to clarify responsibilities with adequate safeguards, strengthening community-based organization and mobilization, and advancing through piloting, evaluation, scaling-up, and continuous improvement. These approaches collectively aim to enhance China's urban early-warning capabilities.

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关键词

早期预警体系 / 城市 / 人本协同 / 级联危险 / 基于影响的预测 / 善意免责

Key words

early warning systems / urban / people-centered collaboration / cascading hazards / impact-based prediction / good-faith immunity

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欧阳敏,程泽楷,张亦琼,马佳欣,李志远,罗凌,谢思琴,王红卫,丁烈云. 人本协同城市早期预警体系的建设思路与发展策略[J]. 中国工程科学, 2025, 27(5): 279-293 DOI:10.15302/J-SSCAE-2025.08.035

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基金资助

中国工程院咨询项目“城市安全面临的挑战及对策”(2022-JB-02)

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3805104)

国家自然科学基金项目(72371109)

国家自然科学基金项目(71821001)

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