
基于物价变化的舰船修理成本建模分析研究
Study on ship maintenance cost modeling analysis based on price change
Zhang Huaiqiang、Jiang Tiejun、Wang Meng
通过物价变化对舰船修理成本的影响分析,确定了舰船装备修理成本与物价变化之间的内在关联关系。运用计量经济学模型,以工业生产者出厂价格指数与不同型号舰船大修费的时间序列数据为基础,研究物价变化对舰船装备修理成本的影响规律,并通过狄克-富勒检验(ADF)方法检验样本数据的稳定均衡关系。研究表明舰船装备修理成本与物价指数之间的内在关联性是长期稳定的均衡,但物价变化对舰船装备修理成本的影响存在着滞后性。
The relationship between ship equipment maintenance cost and price change was determined, through analysis of price chance effect on ship maintenance cost. By econometric models, based on the producer price index and different type of ship maintenance cost time series data, the influence law of price change on ship maintenance cost was studied and the stable equilibrium between sample data was tested by Augment Dickey-Fuller(ADF) method. Research shows that the inherent relevance between the ship equipment maintenance cost and price index is a long-term stable equilibrium, but the price change influence on ship equipment maintenance cost exists the lagging.
ship maintenance cost / price index / cointegration test
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