2022年 第14卷 第7期
《工程（英文）》 >> 2022年 第14卷 第7期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.05.006
综合空气污染和非适宜温度相关死亡风险构建空气健康指数
a Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
b Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service & Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China
c Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, College of Architecture and Environmental Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
d Children's Hospital of Fudan University & National Children's Medical Center, Shanghai 200032, China
e National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
# These authors contributed equally to this work.
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摘要
综合的空气健康指数有助于强调多种大气危险因素的健康风险，有利于向公众传达不良大气环境的总体风险。本文试图通过整合我国大气污染和非适宜温度相关的每日死亡风险，建立一种新的空气健康指数（Air Health Index, AHI）。本研究从时间序列模型中获得了暴露-反应系数，通过将 2013—2015 年我国 272个城市大气污染物与非适宜温度相关的超额死亡风险求和，构建了新的AHI。估计了基于总死亡率构建的AHI（“总AHI”）与全死因死亡率的关系，并进一步比较了“总AHI”与“特异性AHI”（基于疾病别死 亡率构建）在预测心肺系统疾病死亡率方面的能力。研究发现，空气污染和非适宜温度与28.23%的每日超额死亡率有关，其中23.47%与非适宜温度有关，其余的与PM2.5（1.12%）、NO2（2.29%）和O3（ 2.29%）有关。新的AHI采用了10分制的评分标准，272座城市的平均AHI为6分。AHI与死亡率关系的暴露-反应曲线呈线性，不存在阈值。“总AHI”每增加一个单位，全死因死亡率增加0.84%，心血管疾病、冠心病、中风、呼吸系统疾病和慢性阻塞性肺疾病的死亡率分别增加1.01%、0.98%、1.02%、1.66%和1.71%。使用“总AHI”估计疾病别死亡率风险与使用“特异性AHI”预测的疾病别死亡率风险相似。综上所述，本研究提出的“总AHI”可能是一种有前途的风险交流工具，有利于向公众传达与大气环境有关的健康风险。
补充材料
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