期刊首页 优先出版 当期阅读 过刊浏览 作者中心 关于期刊 English

《工程(英文)》 >> 2022年 第14卷 第7期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.018

碳达峰、碳中和研究进展与综述

a Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China

b School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China

c School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology & Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing 100081, China

d State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

收稿日期: 2021-06-08 修回日期: 2021-11-11 录用日期: 2021-12-19 发布日期: 2022-03-08

下一篇 上一篇

摘要

碳达峰与碳中和目标(简称双碳目标)的提出为我国经济社会高质量发展指明了方向。实现碳达峰、碳中和,是一项长期而复杂的系统工程,离不开相关科学研究的支撑与指导。现有研究虽从多方面对如何实现碳达峰、碳中和这一依赖于社会经济系统化发展的命题进行了分析与讨论,但研究庞杂而分散。因此,有必要从历史文献中对这个重要命题进行系统回顾、梳理和总结,厘清相关研究发展脉络,深入挖掘其中热点和难点,凝练基础科学问题,为后续研究明晰方向,为实现碳达峰、碳中和提供支撑。基于此,本研究构建了一套知识集成分析框架,通过对国内外1105篇碳达峰、碳中和相关文献进行汇总梳理,从时空维度追踪领域内国际趋势与发展规律,从技术维度剖析研究热点及主题变迁,从行业维度挖掘支持双碳目标的关键发力点。在此基础上,凝练并提出碳达峰、碳中和研究的关键科学问题,并对我国实现双碳目标的行动方案、优先任务和政策措施提出对策建议。

图片

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

参考文献

[ 1 ] Wei YM, Han R, Liang QM, Yu BY, Yao YF, Xue MM, et al. An integrated assessment of INDCs under shared socioeconomic pathways: an implementation of C3IAM. Nat Hazards 2018;92(2):585‒618. 链接1

[ 2 ] Special Report IPCC. Global warming of 1.5 ℃. Report. Cambridge: Report. Cambridge University Press; 2018.

[ 3 ] United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Emissions gap report 2020—executive summary. Report. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme; 2020.

[ 4 ] Rogelj J, den Elzen M, Höhne N, Fransen T, Fekete H, Winkler H, et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 ℃. Nature 2016;534(7609):631‒9. 链接1

[ 5 ] Wei YM, Han R, Wang C, Yu B, Liang QM, Yuan XC, et al. Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era. Nat Commun 2020;11:1624. 链接1

[ 6 ] Black R, Cullen K, Fay B, Hale T, Lang J, Mahmood S, et al. Taking stock: a global assessment of net zero targets. Report. London: Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit and Oxford Net Zero; 2021.

[ 7 ] Keyßer LT, Lenzen M. 1.5 ℃ degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways. Nat Commun 2021;12:2676. 链接1

[ 8 ] Pineda AC, Chang A, Faria P. Foundations for science-based net-zero target setting in the corporate sector, version 1.0. Report. Paris: Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi); 2020.

[ 9 ] Rogelj J, Schaeffer M, Meinshausen M, Knutti R, Alcamo J, Riahi K, et al. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection. Environ Res Lett 2015;10(10):105007. 链接1

[10] Grossman GM, Krueger AB. Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. Working Paper No. 3914. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research; 1991.

[11] Stern DI. Economic growth and energy. Encyclopedia Energy 2004;2(00147):35‒51.

[12] Assembly UNG. Work of the statistical commission pertaining to the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. New York City, NY, USA: United Nations;2017.

[13] Van Vuuren DP, Van der Wijst KI, Marsman S, van den Berg M, Hof AF, Jones CD. The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty. Nat Clim Chang 2020;10(4):329‒34. 链接1

[14] Kang JN, Wei YM, Liu LC, Han R, Yu BY, Wang JW. Energy systems for climate change mitigation: a systematic review. Appl Energy 2020;263:114602. 链接1

[15] Wei YM, Mi ZF, Huang Z. Climate policy modeling: an online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review. Omega 2015;57:70‒84. 链接1

[16] Bornmann L, Mutz R. Growth rates of modern science: a bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references. J Assoc Inf Sci Technol 2015;66(11):2215‒22. 链接1

[17] Zhang K, Wang Q, Liang QM, Chen H. A bibliometric analysis of research on carbon tax from 1989 to 2014. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2016;58:297‒310. 链接1

[18] Schlamadinger B, Spitzer J, Kohlmaier GH, Lüdeke M. Carbon balance of bioenergy from logging residues. Biomass Bioenergy 1995;8(4):221‒34. 链接1

[19] De Vries B, Bollen J, Bouwman L, Den Elzen M, Janssen M, Kreileman E. Greenhouse gas emissions in an equity-, environment- and service-oriented world: an IMAGE-based scenario for the 21st century. Technol Forecast Soc Change 2000;63(2‒3):137‒74.

[20] Yu S, Zheng S, Li X, Li L. China can peak its energy-related carbon emissions before 2025: evidence from industry restructuring. Energy Econ 2018;‍73:91‒107. 链接1

[21] Tang B, Li R, Yu B, An R, Wei YM. How to peak carbon emissions in China‍’‍s power sector: a regional perspective. Energy Policy 2018;120:365‒81. 链接1

[22] Zhang Y, Liu C, Chen L, Wang X, Song X, Li K. Energy-related CO2 emission peaking target and pathways for China‍’‍s city: a case study of Baoding City. J Clean Prod 2019;226:471‒81. 链接1

[23] Yan Q, Wang Y, Li Z, Balezˇentis T, Streimikiene D. Coordinated development of thermal power generation in Beijing‒Tianjin‒Hebei region: evidence from decomposition and scenario analysis for carbon dioxide emission. J Clean Prod 2019;232:1402‒17. 链接1

[24] Zhou Y, Shan Y, Liu G, Guan D. Emissions and low-carbon development in Guangdong‒Hong Kong‒Macao greater bay area cities and their surroundings. Appl Energy 2018;228:1683‒92. 链接1

[25] Yan Y, Zhang H, Long Y, Zhou X, Liao Q, Xu N, et al. A factor-based bottom-up approach for the long-term electricity consumption estimation in the Japanese residential sector. J Environ Manage 2020;270:110750. 链接1

[26] Huo T, Ma Y, Cai W, Liu B, Mu L. Will the urbanization process influence the peak of carbon emissions in the building sector? A dynamic scenario simulation. Energy Build 2021;232:110590. 链接1

[27] Shan Y, Zhou Y, Meng J, Mi Z, Liu J, Guan D. Peak cement-related CO2 emissions and the changes in drivers in China. J Ind Ecol 2019;23(4):959‒71. 链接1

[28] Li W, Gao S. Prospective on energy related carbon emissions peak integrating optimized intelligent algorithm with dry process technique application for China’s cement industry. Energy 2018;165:33‒54. 链接1

[29] Zhang Q, Lei H, Yang D, Xiong L, Liu P, Fang B. Decadal variation in CO2 fluxes and its budget in a wheat and maize rotation cropland over the North China Plain. Biogeosciences 2020;17(8):2245‒62. 链接1

[30] Lippiatt N, Ling TC, Pan SY. Towards carbon-neutral construction materials: carbonation of cement-based materials and the future perspective. J Build Eng 2020;28:101062. 链接1

[31] Gabrielli P, Gazzani M, Mazzotti M. The role of carbon capture and utilization, carbon capture and storage, and biomass to enable a net-zero-CO2 emissions chemical industry. Ind Eng Chem Res 2020;59(15):7033‒45. 链接1

[32] Le Quéré C, Jackson RB, Jones MW, Smith AJP, Abernethy S, Andrew RM, et al. Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nat Clim Chang 2020;10(7):647‒53. 链接1

[33] Ding S, Zhang M, Song Y. Exploring China’s carbon emissions peak for different carbon tax scenarios. Energy Policy 2019;129:1245‒52. 链接1

[34] Normile D. China’‍s bold climate pledge earns praise—but is it feasible? Science 2020;370(6512):17‒8. 链接1

[35] Rueda O, Mogollón JM, Tukker A, Scherer L. Negative-emissions technology portfolios to meet the 1.5 ℃ target. Glob Environ Change 2021;67:102238. 链接1

[36] House KZ, Baclig AC, Ranjan M, van Nierop EA, Wilcox J, Herzog HJ. Economic and energetic analysis of capturing CO2 from ambient air. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2011;108(51):20428‒33. 链接1

[37] Lu Xi, Cao L, Wang H, Peng W, Xing J, Wang S, et al. Gasification of coal and biomass as a net carbon-negative power source for environment-friendly electricity generation in China. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2019;116(17):8206‒13. 链接1

[38] Fuhrman J, McJeon H, Patel P, Doney SC, Shobe WM, Clarens AF. Food‒energy‍‒‍water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 ℃ future. Nat Clim Chang 2020;10(10):920‒7. 链接1

[39] Fajardy M, Mac DN. Can BECCS deliver sustainable and resource efficient negative emissions? Energy Environ Sci 2017;10(6):1389‒426. 链接1

[40] Rajbhandari S, Limmeechokchai B. Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for Thailand towards achievement of the 2 ℃ and 1.5 ℃ Paris Agreement targets. Clim Policy 2021;21(4):1‒22. 链接1

[41] Lawrence PJ, Chase TN. Investigating the climate impacts of global land cover change in the community climate system model. Int J Climatol 2010;30(13):2066‒87. 链接1

[42] Bonan GB. Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science 2008;320(5882):1444‒9. 链接1

[43] Yang B, Wei YM, Hou Y, Li H, Wang P. Life cycle environmental impact assessment of fuel mix-based biomass co-firing plants with CO2 capture and storage. Appl Energy 2019;252:113483. 链接1

[44] Melara AJ, Singh U, Colosi LM. Is aquatic bioenergy with carbon capture and storage a sustainable negative emission technology? Insights from a spatially explicit environmental life-cycle assessment. Energy Convers Manage 2020;224:113300. 链接1

[45] Loh JYY, Kherani NP, Ozin GA. Persistent CO2 photocatalysis for solar fuels in the dark. Nat Sustain 2021;4(6):466‒73. 链接1

[46] Yao B, Xiao T, Makgae OA, Jie X, Gonzalez-Cortes S, Guan S, et al. Transforming carbon dioxide into jet fuel using an organic combustion-synthesized Fe‒Mn‒K catalyst. Nat Commun 2020;11(1):6395. 链接1

[47] Jiao J, Lin R, Liu S, Cheong WC, Zhang C, Chen Z, et al. Copper atom-pair catalyst anchored on alloy nanowires for selective and efficient electrochemical reduction of CO2. Nat Chem 2019;11(3):222‒8. 链接1

[48] Rumayor M, Dominguez-Ramos A, Irabien A. Innovative alternatives to methanol manufacture: carbon footprint assessment. J Clean Prod 2019;‍225:426‒34. 链接1

[49] International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP). Emissions trading worldwide: status report 2020. Report. Berlin: International Carbon Action Partnership; 2020.

[50] Tang BJ, Wang XY, Wei YM. Quantities versus prices for best social welfare in carbon reduction: a literature review. Appl Energy 2019;233‒234:554‒64.

[51] Weitzman ML. Prices or quantities can dominate banking and borrowing. Scand J Econ 2020;122(2):437‒63. 链接1

[52] Maestre-Andrés S, Drews S, van den Bergh J. Perceived fairness and public acceptability of carbon pricing: a review of the literature. Clim Policy 2019;19(9):1186‒204. 链接1

[53] Hubacek K, Baiocchi G, Feng K, Patwardhan A. Poverty eradication in a carbon constrained world. Nat Commun 2017;8:912. 链接1

[54] MacKay DJC, Cramton P, Ockenfels A, Stoft S. Price carbon—I will if you will. Nature 2015;526(7573):315‒6. 链接1

[55] Hua G, Cheng TCE, Wang S. Managing carbon footprints in inventory management. Int J Prod Econ 2011;132(2):178‒85. 链接1

[56] Thai C. Renewable distributed and centralized generation dynamic’s impact on transmission and storage upgrades to achieve carbon neutrality [dissertation]. Irvine: University of California, Irvine; 2019.

[57] Udas E, Wölk M, Wilmking M. The “carbon-neutral university”—a study from Germany. Int J Sustain High Educ 2018;19(1):130‒45. 链接1

[58] Sucharda P, Gimson M. City of Hamilton signs climate change emergency declaration, reduces energy consumption in water system. J Am Water Works Assoc 2020;112(11):22‒30. 链接1

[59] Reiche D. Renewable energy policies in the Gulf countries: a case study of the carbon-neutral “Masdar City” in Abu Dhabi. Energy Policy 2010;‍38(1):378‒82. 链接1

[60] Li X, Yu B. Peaking CO2 emissions for China’s urban passenger transport sector. Energy Policy 2019;133:110913. 链接1

[61] Tang B, Li R, Yu B, An R, Wei YM. How to peak carbon emissions in China´s power sector: a regional perspective. Energy Policy, 2018;120:365‒81. 链接1

[62] Wei YM, Liao H, Yu B, Tang BJ. Green transition in energy intensive sectors. China energy report. Beijing: Science Press; 2018. Chinese.

[63] Yu S, Zheng S, Li X, Li L. China can peak its energy-related carbon emissions before 2025: evidence from industry restructuring. Energy Economics, 2018;73:91‒107. 链接1

[64] Wang H, Lu X, Deng Y, Sun Y, Nielsen CP, Liu Y, et al. China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from characteristics and growth of cities. Nat Sustain 2019;2(8):748‒54. 链接1

[65] Yang X, Pang J, Teng F, Gong R, Springer C. The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China’s low-carbon pathways: evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2021;136:110438. 链接1

[66] Wang Z, Huang W, Chen Z. The peak of CO2 emissions in China: a new approach using survival models. Energy Econ 2019;81:1099‒108. 链接1

[67] Zhang X, Geng Y, Shao S, Dong H, Wu R, Yao T, et al. How to achieve China‍’‍s CO2 emission reduction targets by provincial efforts?—An analysis based on generalized Divisia index and dynamic scenario simulation. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2020;127:109892. 链接1

[68] Wang Y, Su X, Qi L, Shang P, Xu Y. Feasibility of peaking carbon emissions of the power sector in China’s eight regions: decomposition, decoupling, and prediction analysis. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 2019;26(28):29212‒33. 链接1

[69] Wang X, Zhang S. Exploring linkages among China’s 2030 climate targets. Clim Policy 2017;17(4):458‒69. 链接1

[70] You Z, Zhao T, Song C, Wang J. Analyzing China’‍s coal-related carbon emissions from economic growth perspective: through decoupling and decomposition model. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 2021;28(3):3703‒18. 链接1

[71] Fawcett AA, Iyer GC, Clarke LE, Edmonds JA, Hultman NE, McJeon HC, et al. Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change? Science 2015;350(6265):1168‒9. 链接1

[72] Hubacek K, Guan D, Barrett J, Wiedmann T. Environmental implications of urbanization and lifestyle change in China: ecological and water footprints. J Clean Prod 2009;17(14):1241‒8. 链接1

[73] Yu B, Wei YM, Kei G, Matsuoka Y. Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households. Nat Energy 2018;3(2):109‒18. 链接1

[74] Jacoby HD, Eckaus RS, Ellerman AD, Prinn RG, Reiner DM, Yang Z. CO2 emissions limits: economic adjustments and the distribution of burdens. Energy J 1997;18(3):31‒58. 链接1

[75] Liu LJ, Creutzig F, Yao YF, Wei YM, Liang QM. Environmental and economic impacts of trade barriers: the example of China‒US trade friction. Resour Energy Econ 2020;59:101144. 链接1

[76] Duan H, Mo J, Fan Y, Wang S. Achieving China’‍s energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties. Energy Econ 2018;70:45‒60. 链接1

[77] Capros P, Zazias G, Evangelopoulou S, Kannavou M, Fotiou T, Siskos P, et al. Energy-system modelling of the EU strategy towards climate-neutrality. Energy Policy 2019;134:110960. 链接1

[78] Dubois G, Sovacool B, Aall C, Nilsson M, Barbier C, Herrmann A, et al. It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures. Energy Res Soc Sci 2019;52:144‒58. 链接1

[79] Chen H, Long R, Niu W, Feng Q, Yang R. How does individual low-carbon consumption behavior occur?—An analysis based on attitude process. Appl Energy 2014;116:376‒86. 链接1

[80] Seto KC, Davis SJ, Mitchell RB, Stokes EC, Unruh G, Ürge-Vorsatz D. Carbon lock-in: types, causes, and policy implications. Annu Rev Environ Resour 2016;41(1):425‒52. 链接1

[81] Adedoyin FF, Ozturk I, Agboola MO, Agboola PO, Bekun FV. The implications of renewable and non-renewable energy generating in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of economic policy uncertainties. Energy Policy 2021;150:112115. 链接1

[82] Pegels A, Lütkenhorst W. Is Germany’s energy transition a case of successful green industrial policy? Contrasting wind and solar PV. Energy Policy 2014;74:522‒34. 链接1

[83] Lockwood M. The political sustainability of climate policy: the case of the UK climate change act. Glob Environ Change 2013;23(5):1339‒48. 链接1

[84] Dunlap RE, McCright AM, Yarosh JH. The political divide on climate change: partisan polarization widens in the US. Environment 2016;58(5):4‒23. 链接1

[85] Yu G, Liu D, Liao X, Wang T, Tian Q, Liao Y. Quantitative research on regional ecological compensation from the perspective of carbon-neutral: the case of Hunan Province, China. Sustainability 2017;9(7):1095. 链接1

[86] Song M, Zhao X, Shang Y. The impact of low-carbon city construction on ecological efficiency: empirical evidence from quasi-natural experiments. Resour Conserv Recycling 2020;157:104777. 链接1

[87] Sun L, Liu W, Li Z, Cai B, Fujii M, Luo X, et al. Spatial and structural characteristics of CO2 emissions in East Asian megacities and its indication for low-carbon city development. Appl Energy 2021;284:116400. 链接1

[88] Fan JH, Todorova N. Dynamics of China’s carbon prices in the pilot trading phase. Appl Energy 2017;208:1452‒67. 链接1

[89] Brink C, Vollebergh HRJ, van der Werf E. Carbon pricing in the EU: evaluation of different EU ETS reform options. Energy Policy 2016;97:603‒17. 链接1

[90] Cong RG, Wei YM. Potential impact of (CET) carbon emissions trading on China’‍s power sector: a perspective from different allowance allocation options. Energy 2010;35(9):3921‒31. 链接1

[91] Holt CA, Shobe WM. Reprint of: price and quantity collars for stabilizing emission allowance prices: laboratory experiments on the EU ETS market stability reserve. J Environ Econ Manage 2016;80:69‒86. 链接1

[92] Zhang K, Xue MM, Feng K, Liang QM. The economic effects of carbon tax on China’s provinces. J Policy Model 2019;41(4):784‒802. 链接1

[93] Baranzini A, Goldemberg J, Speck S. A future for carbon taxes. Ecol Econ 2000;32(3):395‒412. 链接1

[94] Cao J, Ho MS, Jorgenson DW, Nielsen CP. China’s emissions trading system and an ETS-carbon tax hybrid. Energy Econ 2019;81:741‒53. 链接1

相关研究