Abstract
To assess the effectiveness of China’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) in facilitating energy structure optimization, we constructed a fuel-switching model utilizing data from 1067 generating units under the Chinese ETS framework. The model simulates the fuel-switching price in China’s thermal power sector, taking into account various allowance allocation strategies. The results show the following: 1) Thermal power plants will transition from coal to gas if the current ETS auction rate surpasses 26%. 2) Furthermore, in scenarios where the ETS operates independently, a transition will occur if the carbon allowance market is entirely auction-based and the carbon price attains 119.50 USD/tCO2. 3) In a collaborative scenario involving both the ETS and a gas feed-in tariff subsidy, a carbon price of 9.39 USD/tCO2 will effect a transition from coal to gas, provided both the auction ratio and subsidy price are maximized.
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