基于碳排放达峰约束的2030年中国能源供需模型及实证研究

doi:10.1016/J.ENG.2017.04.019

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工程（英文） ›› 2017, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (4) : 512-517. DOI: 10.1016/J.ENG.2017.04.019

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基于碳排放达峰约束的2030年中国能源供需模型及实证研究

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An Empirical Study on China’s Energy Supply-and-Demand Model Considering Carbon Emission Peak Constraints in 2030

Jinhang Chen

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Abstract

China’s energy supply-and-demand model and two related carbon emission scenarios, including a planned peak scenario and an advanced peak scenario, are designed taking into consideration China’s economic development, technological progress, policies, resources, environmental capacity, and other factors. The analysis of the defined scenarios provides the following conclusions: Primary energy and power demand will continue to grow leading up to 2030, and the growth rate of power demand will be much higher than that of primary energy demand. Moreover, low carbonization will be a basic feature of energy supply-and-demand structural changes, and non-fossil energy will replace oil as the second largest energy source. Finally, energy-related carbon emissions could peak in 2025 through the application of more efficient energy consumption patterns and more low-carbon energy supply modes. The push toward decarbonization of the power industry is essential for reducing the peak value of carbon emissions.

Keywords

Carbon emission / Peak / Energy supply and demand / Model / Scenario

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. . Engineering. 2017, 3(4): 512-517 https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENG.2017.04.019

参考文献

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2017 2017 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).