PDF(476 KB)
为有效防控新冠病毒肺炎争取时间——抗疫假期政策对疫情传播的影响
Simiao Chen, Qiushi Chen, Weizhong Yang, Lan Xue, Yuanli Liu, Juntao Yang, Chen Wang, Till Bärnighausen
工程（英文） ›› 2020, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (10) : 1108-1114.
PDF(476 KB)
PDF(476 KB)
为有效防控新冠病毒肺炎争取时间——抗疫假期政策对疫情传播的影响
Buying Time for an Effective Epidemic Response: The Impact of a Public Holiday for Outbreak Control on COVID-19 Epidemic Spread
在新发突发传染病的早期阶段，快速应对对于疫情防控至关重要。用于控制疫情的公共假期能为大规模、迅速地进行社会隔离和其他举措提供关键的时间窗口期。本研究的目的是探讨抗疫假期的起始时间节点和持续时间对中国早期新冠病毒肺炎疫情传播的影响。我们开发了一个房室模型来模拟从2020年1月开始中国新冠病毒肺炎疫情的动态传播；预测并比较了春节期间在有抗疫假期和没有抗疫假期下的疫情传播；考虑了抗疫假期在不同持续时间、不同起始时间节点，以及在关于病毒传播率的不同假设下的多种情况；估计了在不同情况下达到某些感染阈值所需的天数延迟。结果表明，中国的抗疫假期使新冠病毒肺炎疫情的传播停滞了许多天。与不设抗疫假期的场景相比，基础场景的抗疫假期（湖北省为21 d，中国所有其他省为10 d）可使确诊感染100 000例的时间延迟7.54 d。持续时间更长的抗疫假期会对疫情防控产生更大的影响。为期21 d的全国性抗疫假期可使确诊感染100 000例的时间延迟近10 d。此外，研究发现，在新发突发传染病较早阶段实施抗疫假期比较晚阶段实施对遏制疫情蔓延更有效，抗疫假期期间采取额外的控制措施可以增强疫情控制效果。总之，抗疫假期能够通过有效地减少人群的社交接触频率及范围，从而减缓疫情的传播。抗疫假期使得新冠病毒肺炎传播暂时停滞，为疫情防控争取了时间，科学家可用争取的时间来发现传播途径并确定有效的公共卫生干预措施，政府可用争取的时间来完善基础设施、调配医疗用品、培训和部署专业人力资源，从而为长期防控做好准备。
Rapid responses in the early stage of a new epidemic are crucial in outbreak control. Public holidays for outbreak control could provide a critical time window for a rapid rollout of social distancing and other control measures at a large population scale. The objective of our study was to explore the impact of the timing and duration of outbreak-control holidays on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic spread during the early stage in China. We developed a compartment model to simulate the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 in China starting from January 2020. We projected and compared epidemic trajectories with and without an outbreak-control holiday that started during the Chinese Lunar New Year. We considered multiple scenarios of the outbreak-control holiday with different durations and starting times, and under different assumptions about viral transmission rates. We estimated the delays in days to reach certain thresholds of infections under different scenarios. Our results show that the outbreak-control holiday in China likely stalled the spread of COVID-19 for several days. The base case outbreak-control holiday (21 d for Hubei Province and 10 d for all other provinces) delayed the time to reach 100 000 confirmed infections by 7.54 d. A longer outbreak-control holiday would have had stronger effects. A nationwide outbreak-control holiday of 21 d would have delayed the time to 100 000 confirmed infections by nearly 10 d. Furthermore, we find that outbreak-control holidays that start earlier in the course of a new epidemic are more effective in stalling epidemic spread than later holidays and that additional control measures during the holidays can boost the holiday effect. In conclusion, an outbreakcontrol holiday can likely effectively delay the transmission of epidemics that spread through social contacts. The temporary delay in the epidemic trajectory buys time, which scientists can use to discover transmission routes and identify effective public health interventions and which governments can use to build physical infrastructure, organize medical supplies, and deploy human resources for long-term epidemic mitigation and control efforts.
新冠病毒肺炎 / 模型 / 春节假期 / 延长 / 保持社交距离
COVID-19 / Model / Lunar New Year holiday / Extension / Social distancing
| [1] |
Chen S, Yang J, Yang W, Wang C, Bärnighausen T. COVID-19 control in China during mass population movements at New Year. Lancet 2020;395 (10226):764–6.
|
| [2] |
Liu Y, Gayle AA, Wilder-Smith A, Rocklöv J. The reproductive number of COVID19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. J Travel Med 2020;27(2):1–4.
|
| [3] |
Yin D. China indefinitely shuts schools, extends holiday in effort to control outbreak [Internet]. Beijing: Caixin Global Limited; c2019 [updated 2020 Jan 27; cited 2020 Jan 28]. Available from: https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020- 01-27/china-indefinitely-shuts-schools-extends-holiday-in-effort-to-controloutbreak-101508893.html.
|
| [4] |
The State Council of the People’s Republic of China. The state council’s announcement on the arrangement of public holidays in 2020 [Internet]. Beijing: The State Council of the People’s Republic of China; 2019 Nov 21 [cited 2020 Feb 3]. Available from: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2019-11/ 21/content_5454164.htm. Chinese.
|
| [5] |
The State Council of the People’s Republic of China. The state council’s announcement on extending the New Year holiday in 2020 [Internet]. Beijing: The State Council of the People’s Republic of China; 2020 Jan 27 [cited 2020 Jan 31]. Available from: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2020-01/ 27/content_5472352.htm. Chinese.
|
| [6] |
National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Transcript of the press conference on Jan 26, 2020 [Internet]. Beijing: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China; 2020 Jan 26 [cited 2020 Jan 31]. Available from: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/fkdt/202001/ 12ec9062d5d041f38e210e8b69b6d7ef.shtml. Chinese.
|
| [7] |
Liu W, Yue XG, Tchounwou PB. Response to the COVID-19 epidemic: the Chinese experience and implications for other countries. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2020;17(7):2304–9.
|
| [8] |
Viner RM, Russell SJ, Croker H, Packer J, Ward J, Stansfield C, et al. School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review. Lancet Child Adolesc Health 2020;4 (5):397–404.
|
| [9] |
Wuhan’s Headquarter on the Novel Coronavirus Prevention and Control. The announcement from Wuhan’s headquarter on the novel coronavirus prevention and control [Internet]. Wuhan: General Office of Hubei Provincial People’s Government; 2020 Jan 23 [cited 2020 Jan 31]. Available from: http:// www.hubei.gov.cn/zhuanti/2020/gzxxgzbd/zxtb/202001/t20200123_2014402. shtml. Chinese.
|
| [10] |
Zhang J, Litvinova M, Liang Y, Wang Y, Wang W, Zhao S, et al. Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Science 2020;368(6498):1481–6.
|
| [11] |
Stern AM, Markel H. What Mexico taught the world about pandemic influenza preparedness and community mitigation strategies. JAMA 2009;302 (11):1221–2.
|
| [12] |
Poletti P, Caprile B, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Merler S. Spontaneous behavioural changes in response to epidemics. J Theor Biol 2009;260(1):31–40.
|
| [13] |
Hatchett RJ, Mecher CE, Lipsitch M. Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. PNAS 2007;104(18):7582–7.
|
| [14] |
Ahmed F, Zviedrite N, Uzicanin A. Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review. BMC Public Health 2018;18(1):518.
|
| [15] |
Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, et al. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 2005;437(7056):209–14.
|
| [16] |
Glass R, Glass L, Beyeler W, Min H. Targeted social distancing designs for pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis 2006;12(11):1671–81.
|
| [17] |
Phan LT, Nguyen TV, Luong QC, Nguyen TV, Nguyen HT, Le HQ, et al. Importation and human-to-human transmission of a novel coronavirus in Vietnam. N Engl J Med 2020;382(9):872–4.
|
| [18] |
Chan JW, Yuan S, Kok K-H, To K-W, Chu H, Yang J, et al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-toperson transmission: a study of a family cluster. Lancet 2020;395 (10223):514–23.
|
| [19] |
Wang C, Horby PW, Hayden FG, Gao GF. A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern. Lancet 2020;395(10223):470–3.
|
| [20] |
United Nations. Coronavirus emergency: here’s what we know so far [Internet]. New York: United Nations; 2020 Feb 3 [cited 2020 Feb 4]. Available from: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1056562.
|
| [21] |
Burki TK. Coronavirus in China. Lancet Respir Med 2020;8(3):238.
|
| [22] |
Tian H, Liu Y, Li Y, Wu C-H, Chen B, Kraemer MUG, et al. An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science 2020;368(6491):638–42.
|
| [23] |
Pan An, Liu Li, Wang C, Guo H, Hao X, Wang Qi, et al. Association of public health interventions with the epidemiology of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. JAMA 2020;323(19):1915–23.
|
| [24] |
Brauer F, van den Driessche P, Wu J. Mathematical epidemiology. Berlin: Springer; 2008.
|
| [25] |
Martcheva M. An introduction to mathematical epidemiology. Berlin: Springer; 2015.
|
| [26] |
Updates on the epidemic [Internet]. Wuhan: Health Commission of Hubei Province; [cited 2020 Jan 31]. Available from: http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/ tzgg/. Chinese.
|
| [27] |
Updates on the epidemic [Internet]. Beijing: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China; [cited 2020 Feb 22]. Available from: http:// www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml. Chinese.
|
| [28] |
Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med 2020;382(13):1199–207.
|
| [29] |
Stout NK, Knudsen AB, Kong CY, McMahon PM, Gazelle GS. Calibration methods used in cancer simulation models and suggested reporting guidelines. PharmacoEconomics 2009;27(7):533–45.
|
| [30] |
Kong CY, McMahon PM, Gazelle GS. Calibration of disease simulation model using an engineering approach. Value Health 2009;12(4):521–9.
|
| [31] |
Hubei announced to extend Lunar New Year holiday until Feb 13 [Internet]. Beijing: Xinhua Net; [cited 2020 Aug 10]. Available from: http://www. xinhuanet.com/local/2020-02/01/c_1125520350.htm.
|
| [32] |
Lin JL, Liu TS. Modeling lunar calendar holiday effects in Taiwan. Taiwan Econ Forecast Policy 2002;33(2):1–37.
|
| [33] |
Chen S, Zhang Z, Yang J, Wang J, Zhai X, Bärnighausen T, et al. Fangcang shelter hospitals: a novel concept for responding to public health emergencies. Lancet 2020;395(10232):1305–14.
|
| [34] |
Li Z, Chen Q, Feng L, Rodewald L, Xia Y, Yu H, et al. Active case finding with case management: the key to tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet 2020;396 (10243):63–70.
|
| [35] |
Maxouris C, Levenson E, Waldrop T. Some US states return to previous restrictions to slow surge of coronavirus cases [Internet]. Atlanta: Cable News Network; c2020 [updated 2020 June 30; cited 2020 Jul 1]. Available from: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/29/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index. html.
|
| [36] |
Horton R. Offline: 2019-nCoV outbreak—early lessons. Lancet 2020;395 (10221):322.
|
| [37] |
Heymann DL. Data sharing and outbreaks: best practice exemplified. Lancet 2020;395(10223):469–70.
|
| [38] |
The Lancet. Emerging understandings of 2019-nCoV. Lancet 2020;395 (10221):311.
|
| [39] |
Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, Hu Yi, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 2020;395 (10223):497–506.
|
| [40] |
Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, Qu J, Gong F, Han Y, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet 2020;395(10223):507–13.
|
| [41] |
Lu R, Zhao X, Li J, Niu P, Yang Bo, Wu H, et al. Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding. Lancet 2020;395(10224):565–74.
|
| [42] |
Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, Li X, Yang B, Song J, et al. A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med 2020;382(8):727–33.
|
| [43] |
Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, Hu B, Zhang L, Zhang W, et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature 2020;579(7798):270–3.
|
| [44] |
Epidemiology Working Group for NCIP Epidemic Response of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China. Chin J Epidemiol 2020;41(2):145–51. Chinese.
|
| [45] |
Guan W, Ni Z, Hu Y, Liang W, Ou C, He J, et al. Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N Engl J Med 2020;382:1708–20.
|
| [46] |
Richardson P, Griffin I, Tucker C, Smitha D, Oechslea O, Phelan A, et al. Baricitinib as potential treatment for 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease. Lancet 2020;395(10223):e30–1.
|
| [47] |
Cao B, Wang Y, Wen D, Liu W, Wang J, Fan G, et al. A trial of lopinavir– ritonavir in adults hospitalized with severe COVID-19. N Engl J Med 2020; 382:1787–99.
|
| [48] |
Wang Y, Zhang D, Du G, Du R, Zhao J, Jin Y, et al. Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial. Lancet 2020;395(10236):1569–78.
|
| [49] |
Wang FS, Zhang C. What to do next to control the 2019-nCoV epidemic? Lancet 2020;395(10222):391–3.
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
