COVID-19住院患者预后风险评分系统的开发和验证——一项多中心回顾性研究
袁烨 , 孙川 , 唐秀川 , 程骋 , Laurent Mombaerts , 王茂霖 , 胡涛 , 孙晨宇 , 郭裕祺 , 李秀婷 , 徐卉 , 任彤鑫 , 肖阳 , 肖亚茹 , 朱红玲 , 吴鸿汉 , 李克之 , 陈楚明 , 刘映霞 , 梁智超 , 曹治国 , 张海涛 , Ioannis Ch. Paschaldis , 刘泉影 , Jorge Goncalves , 钟强 , 严丽
工程（英文） ›› 2022, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (1) : 116 -121.
COVID-19住院患者预后风险评分系统的开发和验证——一项多中心回顾性研究
Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China
新冠病毒肺炎（COVID-19）已成为世界范围内的流行疾病。COVID-19 住院患者的死亡率较高，促使研究人员研发方便实用的方法，以便临床医生及时发现高危患者。在本研究中，我们利用武汉同济医院1479 名住院患者的临床数据（用于模型开发的群体）进行了风险评分，并利用其他两个中心的数据进行了外部验证：武汉金银潭医院的141 名住院患者（验证群体1）和深圳第三人民医院的432 名住院患者（验证群体2）。本文提出的风险评分方法是基于常规血液样本中现成的三个生物标记，能够快捷地转换为死亡概率，并且可提前12 天以上预测单个患者的死亡率，且在所有群体中准确率均超过90%。此外，Kaplan-Meier 分数表明，本方法在患者入院时即可判别低、中、高风险，并且受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下方的面积大小（area under curve, AUC）达到0.9551。综上所述，一种简单的风险评分方法已在预测感染严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）患者的死亡概率任务中得到验证，同时也在多中心数据中进行了验证。
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a worldwide pandemic. Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate, motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients. Here, we have developed a risk score using clinical data from 1479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, China (development cohort) and externally validated with data from two other centers: 141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China (validation cohort 1) and 432 inpatients from The Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China (validation cohort 2). The risk score is based on three biomarkers that are readily available in routine blood samples and can easily be translated into a probability of death. The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 d in advance with more than 90% accuracy across all cohorts. Moreover, the Kaplan–Meier score shows that patients can be clearly differentiated upon admission as low, intermediate, or high risk, with an area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.9551. In summary, a simple risk score has been validated to predict death in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); it has also been validated in independent cohorts.
COVID-19 / Risk score / Mortality risk prediction
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