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气候变暖加剧西藏自治区谷类作物单产的减产效应
Dorji Tsechoe, Shilong Piao, Xuhui Wang, Chuang Zhao, Baohua Liu, Anping Chen, Shiping Wang, Tao Wang
工程（英文） ›› 2022, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (7) : 163-168.
PDF(1684 KB)
PDF(1684 KB)
气候变暖加剧西藏自治区谷类作物单产的减产效应
Emerging Negative Warming Impacts on Tibetan Crop Yield
藏区农业是西藏自治区独特的历史和文化遗产的重要载体。与内地不同，作为唯一能在海拔4000 m以上生长的谷类作物，青稞是西藏自治区最主要的粮食作物。然而，气候变化对以青稞为主的西藏自治区谷类作物单产的影响仍不清楚。为此，本研究基于1985—2015年西藏自治区农业统计数据，解析了气候变暖对西藏自治区谷类作物单产的影响。研究发现，在20世纪80年代和90年代，气候变暖对西藏自治区谷类作物单产的影响并不显著（P > 0.10）；但21 世纪以来，气候变暖显著降低了西藏自治区谷类作物单产（P < 0.05）。同时，西藏自治区谷类作物单产变化对气候变暖的敏感度几乎加倍：从(−0.13 ± 0.20) t·ha−1·°C−1增至(−0.22 ± 0.14) t·ha−1·°C−1，表明气候变暖导致西藏自治区谷类作物生产更加脆弱。不仅如此，随着气温继续升高，当全球平均气温升幅比工业革命前高1.5 °C 和2 °C时，西藏自治区谷类作物单产对气候变暖的敏感度将比当前再增强1~2 倍，分别达到(−0.33 ± 0.10) t·ha−1·°C−1和(−0.51 ± 0.18) t·ha−1·°C−1。如何应对全球变化、实现农业可持续发展是当前西藏自治区社会发展面临的重大挑战。
Preserving Tibet's unique history and cultural heritage relies on the sustainability of the Tibetan croplands, which are characterized by highland barley, the only cereal crop cultivated over 4000 m above sea level. Yet it is unknown how these croplands will respond to climate change. Here, using yield statistics from 1985 to 2015, we found that the impact of temperature anomalies on the Tibetan crop yield shifted from nonsignificant (P > 0.10) in the 1980s and 1990s to significantly negative (P < 0.05) in recent years. Meanwhile, the apparent sensitivity of the crop yield to temperature anomalies almost doubled, from (–0.13 ± 0.20) to (–0.22 ± 0.14) t·ha–1·°C–1. The emerging negative impacts of higher temperatures suggest an increasing vulnerability of Tibetan croplands to warmer climate. With global warming scenarios of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above the pre-industry level, the temperature sensitivities of crop yield may further increase to (–0.33 ± 0.10) and (–0.51 ± 0.18) t·ha–1·°C–1, respectively, making the crops 2–3 times more vulnerable to warmer temperatures than they are today.
Tibet / Warming / Crop yield / Barley / Negative warming impacts
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