澜沧江-湄公河流域气候和水资源变化的过去和将来——现有的认识和未来的研究方向
刘俊国 , 陈德亮 , 冒甘泉 , Masoud Irannezhad , Yadu Pokhrel
工程（英文） ›› 2022, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (6) : 144 -152.
澜沧江-湄公河流域气候和水资源变化的过去和将来——现有的认识和未来的研究方向
刘俊国 , 陈德亮 , 冒甘泉 , Masoud Irannezhad , Yadu Pokhrel
工程（英文） ›› 2022, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (6) : 144 -152.
澜沧江-湄公河流域气候和水资源变化的过去和将来——现有的认识和未来的研究方向
Past and Future Changes in Climate and Water Resources in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin: Current Understanding and Future Research Directions
The Lancang–Mekong River (LMR) is an important transboundary river that originates from the Tibetan plateau, China and flows through six nations in Southeast Asia. Knowledge about the past and future changes in climate and water for this basin is critical in order to support regional sustainable development. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the scientific progress that has been made in understanding the changing climate and water systems, and discusses outstanding challenges and future research opportunities. The existing literature suggests that: ① the warming rate in the Lancang–Mekong River basin (LMRB) is higher than the mean global warming rate, and it is higher in its upper portion, the Lancang River basin (LRB), than in its lower portion, the Mekong River basin (MRB); ② historical precipitation has increased over the LMRB, particularly from 1981 to 2010, as the wet season became wetter in the entire basin, while the dry season became wetter in the LRB but drier in the MRB; ③ in the past, streamflow increased in the LRB but slightly decreased in the MRB, and increases in streamflow are projected for the future in the LMRB; and ④ historical streamflow increased in the dry season but decreased in the wet season from 1960 to 2010, while a slight increase is projected during the wet season. Four research directions are identified as follows: ① investigation of the impacts of dams on river flow and local communities; ② implementation of a novel water–energy–food–ecology (WEFE) nexus; ③ integration of groundwater and human health management with water resource assessment and management; and ④ strengthening of transboundary collaboration in order to address sustainable development goals (SDGs).
澜沧江-湄公河 / 国际河流 / 水文 / 水资源 / 气候变化 / 水电开发
Lancang–Mekong River / International river / Hydrology / Water resources / Climate change / Hydropower development
| Demographic characteristics, symptoms, and radiographic signs | Full sample (n = 1753) | Recovery (n = 1270) | Deterioration (n = 382) | Censored (n = 101) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic characteristics | ||||
| Agea (year) | 48.7 (11.3) | 48.4 (11.2) | 50.0 (11.5) | 48.5 (11.3) |
| Age group (year) | ||||
| < 40 | 405 (23.1%) | 301 (23.7%) | 81 (21.2%) | 23 (22.8%) |
| 40‒45 | 187 (10.7%) | 144 (11.3%) | 30 (7.9%) | 13 (12.9%) |
| 45‒49 | 216 (12.3%) | 167 (13.2%) | 40 (10.5%) | 9 (8.9%) |
| 50‒54 | 278 (15.9%) | 195 (15.4%) | 64 (16.8%) | 19 (18.8%) |
| 55‒59 | 321 (18.3%) | 230 (18.1%) | 74 (19.4%) | 17 (16.8%) |
| ≥ 60 | 346 (19.7%) | 233 (18.4%) | 93 (24.4%) | 20 (19.8%) |
| Sex | ||||
| Male | 758 (43.2%) | 527 (41.5%) | 186 (48.7%) | 45 (44.6%) |
| Respiratory symptoms | ||||
| Coughb | 809 (46.2%) | 564 (44.4%) | 201 (52.6%) | 44 (43.6%) |
| Stuffy or runny nose | 81 (4.6%) | 58 (4.6%) | 20 (5.2%) | 3 (3.0%) |
| Sore throat | 98 (5.6%) | 68 (5.4%) | 27 (7.1%) | 3 (3.0%) |
| Dyspnea | 365 (20.8%) | 226 (17.8%) | 109 (28.5%) | 30 (30.0%) |
| Gastrointestinal symptoms | ||||
| Nausea or vomiting | 84 (4.8%) | 57 (4.5%) | 17 (4.5%) | 10 (9.9%) |
| Abdominal pain or diarrhea | 150 (8.6%) | 104 (8.2%) | 38 (10.0%) | 8 (7.9%) |
| General symptoms | ||||
| Fatigue | 439 (25.0%) | 309 (24.3%) | 103 (27.0%) | 27 (26.7%) |
| Headache | 82 (4.7%) | 66 (5.2%) | 12 (3.1%) | 4 (4.0%) |
| Myalgia | 152 (8.7%) | 91 (7.2%) | 44 (11.5%) | 17 (16.8%) |
| Fever | 568 (32.4%) | 377 (29.7%) | 123 (32.2%) | 68 (67.3%) |
| CT signs | ||||
| Ground-glass opacity | 1402 (80.0%) | 1020 (80.3%) | 322 (84.3%) | 60 (59.4%) |
| Infiltrating shadows | 69 (3.9%) | 40 (3.2%) | 25 (6.5%) | 4 (4.0%) |
| Consolidation | 22 (1.3%) | 15 (1.2%) | 7 (1.8%) | 0 (0) |
| Pleural effusion | 11 (0.6%) | 8 (0.6%) | 3 (0.8%) | 0 (0) |
| Pulmonary interstitial changes | 26 (1.5%) | 20 (1.6%) | 6 (1.6%) | 0 (0) |
| Risk factors | Cumulative incidence (HR, 95% CI, p)c | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 (n = 1701) | Model 2 (n = 1701) | Model 3 (n = 1701) | Model 4 (n = 1701) | Model 5 (n = 1701) | |
| Demographic characteristics | |||||
| Age groupsa | |||||
| 40‒44 | 0.78, (0.51‒1.20), 0.258 | 0.77, (0.50‒1.17), 0.215 | 0.74, (0.48‒1.13), 0.167 | 0.73, (0.48‒1.13), 0.160 | 0.74, (0.48‒1.14), 0.170 |
| 45‒49 | 0.92, (0.63‒1.35), 0.679 | 0.91, (0.62‒1.33), 0.623 | 0.92, (0.63‒1.34), 0.648 | 0.92, (0.63‒1.35), 0.677 | 0.94, (0.64‒1.37), 0.746 |
| 50‒54 | 1.16, (0.83‒1.61), 0.382 | 1.12, (0.80‒1.57), 0.499 | 1.12, (0.80‒1.56), 0.514 | 1.10, (0.79‒1.54), 0.569 | 1.08, (0.77‒1.51), 0.672 |
| 55‒59 | 1.17, (0.85‒1.60), 0.345 | 1.15, (0.84‒1.59), 0.386 | 1.13, (0.82‒1.56), 0.463 | 1.16, (0.84‒1.61), 0.368 | 1.14, (0.82‒1.59), 0.426 |
| ≥ 60 | 1.43, (1.06‒1.93), 0.019 | 1.38, (1.02‒1.87), 0.035 | 1.37, (1.01‒1.85), 0.041 | 1.37, (1.01‒1.86), 0.040 | 1.33, (0.98‒1.81), 0.063 |
| Sex | |||||
| Male | 1.25, (1.02‒1.53), 0.033 | 1.31, (1.06‒1.60), 0.011 | 1.29, (1.05‒1.59), 0.015 | 1.28, (1.04‒1.58), 0.018 | 1.29, (1.04‒1.58), 0.018 |
| Respiratory symptoms | |||||
| Coughb,d | — | 1.27, (1.03‒1.56), 0.028 | 1.27, (1.03‒1.57), 0.024 | 1.26, (1.02‒1.57), 0.033 | 1.22, (0.98‒1.51), 0.077 |
| Stuffy or runny nose | — | 0.89, (0.55‒1.42), 0.616 | 0.97, (0.59‒1.58), 0.899 | 1.02, (0.62‒1.67), 0.952 | 1.01, (0.61‒1.66), 0.978 |
| Sore throat | — | 1.20, (0.79‒1.81), 0.396 | 1.23, (0.82‒1.86), 0.315 | 1.28, (0.85‒1.93), 0.239 | 1.33, (0.88‒2.01), 0.180 |
| Dyspnea | — | 1.52, (1.20‒1.93), 0.001 | 1.57, (1.24‒2.00), < 0.001 | 1.58, (1.24‒2.01), < 0.001 | 1.58, (1.24‒2.01), < 0.001 |
| Gastrointestinal symptoms | |||||
| Nausea or vomiting | — | — | 0.57, (0.32‒0.99), 0.046 | 0.55, (0.31‒0.99), 0.046 | 0.53, (0.30‒0.96), 0.036 |
| Abdominal pain or diarrhea | — | — | 1.11, (0.78‒1.56), 0.571 | 1.13, (0.80‒1.60), 0.497 | 1.09, (0.77‒1.55), 0.631 |
| General symptoms | |||||
| Fatigue | — | — | — | 0.94, (0.73‒1.21), 0.626 | 0.94, (0.73‒1.21), 0.613 |
| Headache | — | — | — | 0.53, (0.29‒0.98), 0.042 | 0.54, (0.29‒0.99), 0.046 |
| Myalgia | — | — | — | 1.39, (0.96‒2.03), 0.084 | 1.36, (0.93‒1.98), 0.109 |
| Feverb | — | — | — | 1.07, (0.85‒1.34), 0.573 | 1.14, (0.91‒1.44), 0.255 |
| CT signs | |||||
| Ground-glass opacity | — | — | — | — | 1.39, (1.04‒1.86), 0.024 |
| Infiltrating shadows | — | — | — | — | 1.84, (1.22‒2.78), 0.004 |
| Consolidation | — | — | — | — | 1.17, (0.56‒2.42), 0.678 |
| Pleural effusion | — | — | — | — | 1.20, (0.37‒3.94), 0.761 |
| Pulmonary interstitial changes | — | — | — | — | 0.83, (0.37‒1.83), 0.642 |
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