项目进度管理中基于挣值的随机工期分析

Fernando Acebes , David Poza , José Manuel González-Varona , Adolfo López-Paredes

工程(英文) ›› 2022, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (2) : 148 -162.

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工程(英文) ›› 2022, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (2) : 148 -162. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.07.019
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项目进度管理中基于挣值的随机工期分析

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Stochastic Earned Duration Analysis for Project Schedule Management

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摘要

挣值工期管理(EDM)是一种用于项目进度管理(PSM)的研究方法,当无法使用挣值管理(EVM)时,可以考虑这种方法。挣值工期管理用于估算进度偏差和最终项目工期。挣值工期管理和挣值管理的关键区别在于:在挣值工期管理中,用工作周期表示活动的值;而在挣值管理中,用成本表示活动的值。本文将展示如何使用挣值工期管理监控随机项目。为便于解释该方法,本文通过实例分析对呈现出高度不确定性的项目开展研究,项目中的各项活动采用随机工期。根据这些活动的网络拓扑分析该方法的可用性,并比较了挣值管理和挣值进度分析法(ESM)对项目进度管理的作用。

Abstract

Earned duration management (EDM) is a methodology for project schedule management (PSM) that can be considered an alternative to earned value management (EVM). EDM provides an estimation of deviations in schedule and a final project duration estimation. There is a key difference between EDM and EVM: In EDM, the value of activities is expressed as work periods; whereas in EVM, value is expressed in terms of cost. In this paper, we present how EDM can be applied to monitor and control stochastic projects. To explain the methodology, we use a real case study with a project that presents a high level of uncertainty and activities with random durations. We analyze the usability of this approach according to the activities network topology and compare the EVM and earned schedule methodology (ESM) for PSM.

关键词

挣值工期管理 / 挣值管理 / 随机项目控制 / 工期预测 / 不确定性

Key words

Earned duration management / Earned value management / Stochastic project control / Duration forecasting / Uncertainty

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Fernando Acebes,David Poza,José Manuel González-Varona,Adolfo López-Paredes. 项目进度管理中基于挣值的随机工期分析[J]. 工程(英文), 2022, 9(2): 148-162 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2021.07.019

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