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中国碳减排与空气质量改善及相关健康效益之间的协同效应
Jie Wang, Xi Lu, Pengfei Du, Haotian Zheng, Zhaoxin Dong, Zihua Yin, Jia Xing, Shuxiao Wang, Jiming Hao
工程（英文） ›› 2023, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1) : 103-111.
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中国碳减排与空气质量改善及相关健康效益之间的协同效应
The Increasing Role of Synergistic Effects in Carbon Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement, and Its Associated Health Benefits in China
协同治理被认为是中国应对气候变化和空气污染防治双重挑战的关键措施。但是，目前仍然没有一个指标能够全面评估协同效应，现有的研究缺乏一个一致的框架用于比较各研究间结果。为此，本研究对协同指标进行了定义，指标意义为单位GDP的污染物产生量变化所带来的减排效应。通过耦合迪氏指数分解分析方法（LMDI）、排放-浓度响应曲面模型（RSM）和全球暴露反应关系模型（GEMM）构建综合分析框架，用于评估中国碳减排对大气污染物减排和公众健康的协同效应。研究结果表明，协同效应对SO2、NOx和PM2.5（空气动力学直径不大于2.5 μm的主要颗粒物）的减排作用越来越重要。具体而言，协同控制对SO2、NOx和PM2.5的减排量从“十一五”时期（2006—2010 年）的3.1 Mt、1.4 Mt和0.3 Mt增加到“十二五”时期（2011—2015 年）的5.6 Mt、3.7 Mt和1.9 Mt。与无控情景相比，协同效应使得PM2.5年均浓度降低了15%，从而在2015 年避免了29 万例（95%置信区间：28~30）由PM2.5引起的额外死亡。协同控制对于空气质量改善和公众健康保护的效应在人口密集的我国发达东部省市更加显著。未来随着城市化和碳中和进程的推进，协同效应有望继续增强。发达地区提前实现气候目标将同时为空气质量和公众健康带来更大的协同效益。
A synergistic pathway is regarded as a critical measure for tackling the intertwined challenges of climate change and air pollution in China. However, there is as yet no indicator that can comprehensively reflect such synergistic effects; hence, existing studies lack a consistent framework for comparison. Here, we introduce a new synergistic indicator defined as the pollutant generation per gross domestic product (GDP) and adopt an integrated analysis framework by linking the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, response surface model (RSM), and global exposure mortality model (GEMM) to evaluate the synergistic effects of carbon mitigation on both air pollutant reduction and public health in China. The results show that synergistic effects played an increasingly important role in the emissions mitigation of SO2, NOx, and primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter no greater than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), and the synergistic mitigation of pollutants respectively increase from 3.1, 1.4, and 0.3 Mt during the 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2006–2010) to 5.6, 3.7, and 1.9 Mt during the 12th FYP (2011–2015). Against the non-control scenario, synergistic effects alone contributed to a 15% reduction in annual mean PM2.5 concentration, resulting in the prevention of 0.29 million (95% CI: 0.28–0.30) PM2.5-attributable excess deaths in 2015. Synergistic benefits to air quality improvement and public health were remarkable in the developed and population-dense eastern provinces and municipalities. With the processes of urbanization and carbon neutrality in the future, synergistic effects are expected to continue to increase. Realizing climate targets in advance in developed regions would concurrently bring strong synergistic effects to air quality and public health.
协同效应 / 指标 / 碳减排 / 空气污染控制 / 时空差异
Synergistic effects / Indicator / Carbon mitigation / Air pollution control / Spatial and temporal disparities
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