多尺度作物种植结构优化及其伴生效应分析

刘琦, 牛俊, 杜太生, 康绍忠

工程（英文） ›› 2023, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (9) : 139-152.

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工程（英文） ›› 2023, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (9) : 139-152. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2023.03.012
研究论文
Article

多尺度作物种植结构优化及其伴生效应分析

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A Full-Scale Optimization of a Crop Spatial Planting Structure and its Associated Effects

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摘要

在农业可持续发展理念的推动下，作物种植结构优化已成为减少区域作物耗水、保障粮食安全和保护生态环境的有效措施。然而，传统的作物种植结构优化（CPSO）往往忽视了对区域粮食供需关系和省际间粮食贸易结构的影响。本研究运用系统分析的思想，以虚拟水贸易为衔接点，提出了一个基于多尺度、全方位评价指标体系的CPSO理论框架，并加以应用。构建了SWAT-WF的水足迹模拟模块，以模拟区域作物生产的水足迹（WF）数量与组分。建立了以最大化区域经济水生产力（EWP）、最小化蓝水依赖度（BWFrate）和最小化灰水足迹（GWFgray）为目标的多目标空间CPSO模型，以实现区域种植结构的最优种植布局。结合多层次效益指标，构建了基于地区、省份和国家尺度的全面评价指标体系。通过熵权-TOPSIS综合评价模型，实现多种CPSO方案的优选。以中国甘肃省内的黑河流域中上游地区为研究案例，验证本文提出的理论框架，结合虚拟水贸易与系统分析理论为黑河流域确定了最优作物种植结构。优化结果以牺牲一定程度经济效益为代价，显著提高了区域水资源效益和生态效益。

Abstract

Driven by the concept of agricultural sustainable development, crop planting structure optimization (CPSO) has become an effective measure to reduce regional crop water demand, ensure food security, and protect the environment. However, traditional optimization of crop planting structures often ignores the impact on regional food supply-demand relations and interprovincial food trading. Therefore, using a system analysis concept and taking virtual water output as the connecting point, this study proposes a theoretical CPSO framework based on a multi-aspect and full-scale evaluation index system. To this end, a water footprint (WF) simulation module denoted as soil and water assessment tool-water footprint (SWAT-WF) is constructed to simulate the amount and components of regional crop WFs. A multi-objective spatial CPSO model with the objectives of maximizing the regional economic water productivity (EWP), minimizing the blue water dependency (BWFrate), and minimizing the grey water footprint (GWFgrey) is established to achieve an optimal planting layout. Considering various benefits, a full-scale evaluation index system based on region, province, and country scales is constructed. Through an entropy weight technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) comprehensive evaluation model, the optimal plan is selected from a variety of CPSO plans. The proposed framework is then verified through a case study of the upper-middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in Gansu province, China. By combining the theory of virtual water trading with system analysis, the optimal planting structure is found. While sacrificing reasonable regional economic benefits, the optimization of the planting structure significantly improves the regional water resource benefits and ecological benefits at different scales.

关键词

种植结构优化 / 多尺度评价指标体系 / 水足迹 / SWAT-WF模块 / 省际间粮食贸易 / 熵权-TOPSIS法

Keywords

Planting structure optimization / Full-scale evaluation index system / Water footprint / SWAT-WF module / Interprovincial food trade / Entropy weight TOPSIS

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刘琦, 牛俊, 杜太生. 多尺度作物种植结构优化及其伴生效应分析. Engineering. 2023, 28(9): 139-152 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2023.03.012

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