考虑生态系统服务价值基于混合双主体代理和元胞自动机建模的高密度人口流域土地利用/土地覆盖动态模拟方法研究

李雨桐, 蔡宴朋, 付强, 张晓东, 万航, 杨志峰

工程（英文） ›› 2024, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6) : 198-211.

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工程（英文） ›› 2024, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6) : 198-211. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2023.10.015
研究论文
Article

考虑生态系统服务价值基于混合双主体代理和元胞自动机建模的高密度人口流域土地利用/土地覆盖动态模拟方法研究

作者信息 +

Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover Considering Ecosystem Services for a Dense-Population Watershed Based on a Hybrid Dual-Subject Agent and Cellular Automaton Modeling Approach

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摘要

土地利用/土地覆盖表示人类社会系统和地理环境系统的相互作用和影响，引起自然和人类相关问题以及利益关联者之间的潜在冲突。该研究引入土地生态系统服务价值和农民经济状况属性，开发基于元胞自动机和多智能体耦合的仿真模型有效处理社会经济和土地利用协同的问题，以研究人类与环境相互作用并对华南湿润地区土地利用变化情况进行预测。引起土地利用/土地覆盖改变的驱动因子包括自然属性数据和社会经济数据。元胞自动机耦合多智能体模型主要包括初始化模块、迁移模块、资产模块、土地适宜性模块和土地利用变化决策模块。本研究应用空间逻辑回归模型以获得影响城市用地的社会经济因素转换概率。同时，引入了多准则评价和马尔可夫模型以获得影响生态用地的自然属性因素转换概率。本研究提出了一种基于多智能体模型的元胞自动机-空间逻辑回归-多准则评价-马尔可夫的土地利用转换模型（ABCSMM），以探索多种政策对土地利用转换的影响。该模型考虑林地转换、城市扩张、生态系统服务价值和土地利用决策之间的联系，以便更精准地复刻观察到的土地利用模式。多政策情景下的土地利用模拟结果揭示了该模型在土地利用管理规范研究中的实用性。

Abstract

Land use/land cover represents the interactive and comprehensive influences between human activities and natural conditions, leading to potential conflicts among natural and human-related issues as well as among stakeholders. This study introduced economic standards for farmers. A hybrid approach (CA-ABM) of cellular automaton (CA) and an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to effectively deal with social and land-use synergic issues to examine human-environment interactions and projections of land-use conversions for a humid basin in south China. Natural attributes and socioeconomic data were used to analyze land use/land cover and its drivers of change. The major modules of the CA-ABM are initialization, migration, assets, land suitability, and land-use change decisions. Empirical estimates of the factors influencing the urban land-use conversion probability were captured using parameters based on a spatial logistic regression (SLR) model. Simultaneously, multicriteria evaluation (MCE) and Markov models were introduced to obtain empirical estimates of the factors affecting the probability of ecological land conversion. An agent-based CA-SLR-MCE-Markov (ABCSMM) land-use conversion model was proposed to explore the impacts of policies on land-use conversion. This model can reproduce observed land-use patterns and provide links for forest transition and urban expansion to land-use decisions and ecosystem services. The results demonstrated land-use simulations under multi-policy scenarios, revealing the usefulness of the model for normative research on land-use management.

关键词

土地利用/土地覆盖 / 人地系统 / 多智能体 / 元胞自动机

Keywords

Land use/land cover / Human-environment interactions / Agent-based model / Cellular automaton

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李雨桐, 蔡宴朋, 付强. 考虑生态系统服务价值基于混合双主体代理和元胞自动机建模的高密度人口流域土地利用/土地覆盖动态模拟方法研究. Engineering. 2024, 37(6): 198-211 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2023.10.015

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