中国金沙江沿线的滑坡堵江威胁

肖诗豪, 张利民, 肖特, 蒋若辰, 彭大雷, 卢雯珺, 何鑫

工程（英文） ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11) : 326-339.

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工程（英文） ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11) : 326-339. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2024.07.001
研究论文

中国金沙江沿线的滑坡堵江威胁

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Landslide Damming Threats Along the Jinsha River, China

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摘要

金沙江全长2280公里，在过去30年中至少被滑坡体阻塞过四次。高山峡谷中发生的滑坡堵江灾害链可能危及堵江点下游数百公里的居民和基础设施。历史上的堵江事件导致了灾难性后果，因此需要对金沙江沿线的堵江威胁进行全面评估。本研究对金沙江进行了数字化，并详细展示其地形、构造、水文和气候特征。提出了一种两阶段全概率方法来评估整条河流的堵江威胁，从而可以识别堵江高危区和应优先开展防灾减灾的区域。研究发现，金沙江上游的堵江威胁最大，威胁程度向下游逐渐减小。金沙江全长约33.4%、36.7%、20.5%和9.4%的区段分别被归类为低、中、高和极高堵江威胁等级。与已建水电工程项目相比，上游规划中的项目更可能受到滑坡堵江的威胁。我们强调流域尺度灾害分析的重要性，并期望基于该研究成果对堵江高危区进行更具针对性的定量风险评估，为金沙江沿线的滑坡堵江和水电基础设施风险防控提供科学依据。

Abstract

The 2280 km long Jinsha River has been blocked at least four times in the past 30 years. A landslide damming hazard chain can endanger communities and infrastructures hundreds of kilometers downstream from the damming site in alpine gorges. Past damming events have resulted in severe consequences, demanding a thorough assessment of damming threats along the entire Jinsha River. This study digitizes the Jinsha River and visualizes its topographic, tectonic, hydrologic, and climate characteristics in detail. A two-stage full-probability method is proposed for assessing the damming threats along this river, making it possible to identify potential damming hotspots and high-priority zones for hazard mitigation. It is found that the upper reach of the Jinsha River poses the greatest damming threat, and the threat level gradually decreases downstream. Approximately 33.4%, 36.7%, 20.5%, and 9.4% of the entire length of the Jinsha River are classified as low, moderate, high, and very high threat levels, respectively. Compared with existing hydropower projects, future projects in the upper reach are more likely to be exposed to landslide damming. We highlight the value of basin-scale spatial threat analysis and envisage that our findings will promote more targeted local-scale risk assessments for potential damming hotspots. These outcomes provide the basis for managing the risks of river damming and hydropower infrastructure along the Jinsha River.

关键词

堰塞坝 / 滑坡 / 金沙江 / 风险分析 / 水电站

Keywords

Landslide dam / Landslides / Jinsha River / Risk analysis / Hydropower

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肖诗豪, 张利民, 肖特. 中国金沙江沿线的滑坡堵江威胁. Engineering. 2024, 42(11): 326-339 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2024.07.001

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