气候变化背景下的全球风力发电容量研究

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工程(英文) ›› 2025, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (8) : 86 -97.

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工程(英文) ›› 2025, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (8) : 86 -97. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2024.09.018
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气候变化背景下的全球风力发电容量研究

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Global Wind-Power Generation Capacity in the Context of Climate Change

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摘要

Establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources is a pivotal step toward achieving a globally sustainable transition to green and low-carbon energy. This study focuses on low-output wind power that affects the generation capacity of power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources. Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 datasets, a predictive model for low-output wind power was employed to investigate regional trends worldwide. The frequency and duration of low-output wind-power events exhibited increasing trends globally, particularly in East Asia and South America, but not in North America. By 2060, the annual total days with low-output wind power in East Asia and South America could rise to 13 and 5 d, and the maximum continuous duration of low-output wind power could reach 5 and 2 d, respectively. As wind power becomes a primary electricity source, such low output could lead to shortages in energy supply within the power system, triggering large-scale power outages. This issue calls for critical attention when establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources. The conclusions provide a basis for analyzing power supply risks and configuring flexible power sources for scenarios with a high share of renewable energy.

Abstract

Establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources is a pivotal step toward achieving a globally sustainable transition to green and low-carbon energy. This study focuses on low-output wind power that affects the generation capacity of power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources. Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 datasets, a predictive model for low-output wind power was employed to investigate regional trends worldwide. The frequency and duration of low-output wind-power events exhibited increasing trends globally, particularly in East Asia and South America, but not in North America. By 2060, the annual total days with low-output wind power in East Asia and South America could rise to 13 and 5 d, and the maximum continuous duration of low-output wind power could reach 5 and 2 d, respectively. As wind power becomes a primary electricity source, such low output could lead to shortages in energy supply within the power system, triggering large-scale power outages. This issue calls for critical attention when establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources. The conclusions provide a basis for analyzing power supply risks and configuring flexible power sources for scenarios with a high share of renewable energy.

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Key words

Climate change / Wind generation / Low-output wind power / Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 datasets / Trends of low-output wind power

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, , , , , 气候变化背景下的全球风力发电容量研究[J]. 工程(英文), 2025, 51(8): 86-97 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2024.09.018

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