能源转型风险评估——概念、指标与方法论问题

Peng Zhou ,  Guang-Xiao Wan ,  Wen Wen ,  Qing Zhu

工程(英文) ›› 2026, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (10) : 62 -73.

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工程(英文) ›› 2026, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (10) : 62 -73. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2025.10.009

能源转型风险评估——概念、指标与方法论问题

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Energy Transition Risk Assessment: Concepts, Indicators, and Methodological Issues

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Abstract

Effective identification and assessment of various energy transition risks are essential for ensuring energy security. This study conducts a systematic review of the literature on energy transition risk assessment, with three principal objectives: ① establishing a standardized risk taxonomy, ② analyzing the characteristics of current assessment methodologies, and ③ identifying the priority research directions. First, energy transition risks are structured into two categories: implementation risks and consequential risks. Subsequently, assessment methodologies are categorized into five methodological groups: the indicator approach, probabilistic risk assessment approach, econometric approach, simulation approach, and hybrid approach. This analysis reveals a growing scholarly focus on consequential risks, particularly those affecting the energy system and economic system. The evolution of research shows a progression from macro-level analyses to micro-level investigations, accompanied by methodological advancement from simple indicator approach to the more sophisticated computational models. Future research may prioritize investigating multi-risk interactions and developing comprehensive assessment frameworks to address the complex risk landscape faced by diverse stakeholders in the energy transition.

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Energy transition / Risk assessment / Indicator / Simulation model / Probabilistic risk assessment

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Peng Zhou,Guang-Xiao Wan,Wen Wen,Qing Zhu. 能源转型风险评估——概念、指标与方法论问题[J]. 工程(英文), 2026, 65(10): 62-73 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2025.10.009

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