电动出行转型背景下欧洲的电池材料需求与报废管理

Wu Chen; Juan Tan; Rui Zhang; Jakob K. Rasmussen; Jakob L. Karlsson; Xin Ouyang; Qiance Liu; Burak Sen; Jakob K. Keiding; Gang Liu

doi:10.1016/j.eng.2026.05.017

工程（英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (10) : 315 -325. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2026.05.017

电动出行转型背景下欧洲的电池材料需求与报废管理

ⁱ

Wu Chen ^a^,^# ,
Juan Tan ^b^,^c^,^d^,^# ,
Rui Zhang ^e ,
Jakob K. Rasmussen ^a ,
Jakob L. Karlsson ^a ,
Xin Ouyang ^f ,
Qiance Liu ^g ,
Burak Sen ^h ,
Jakob K. Keiding ⁱ ,
Gang Liu ^g^,^*

作者信息 +

Battery Material Demand and End-of-Life Management for Europe’s E-Mobility Transition

Wu Chen ^a^,^# ,
Juan Tan ^b^,^c^,^d^,^# ,
Rui Zhang ^e ,
Jakob K. Rasmussen ^a ,
Jakob L. Karlsson ^a ,
Xin Ouyang ^f ,
Qiance Liu ^g ,
Burak Sen ^h ,
Jakob K. Keiding ⁱ ,
Gang Liu ^g^,^*

Author information +

^a SDU Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Green Technology, Faculty of Engineering, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark

^b MOE Social Science Laboratory of Mineral Resources Security Governance, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China

^c School of Materials Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China

^d Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education for Geological Carbon Storage and Low Carbon Utilization of Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China

^e Alibaba Group, Hangzhou 310052, China

^f Department of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan

^g College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

^h SAU Center for Research & Development, and Applied Research (SARGEM), Faculty of Engineering, Sakarya University, Sakarya 54050, Türkiye; i Center for Minerals and Materials, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen 1350, Denmark

^j Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

* E-mail address: gangliu@pku.edu.cn (G. Liu).

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Abstract

Potential resource constraints for batteries hinder the electric vehicle (EV) deployment which is necessary for meeting Europe’s climate goals. Most previous studies on the material implications of car electrification do not explicitly consider lifetime differences between EVs and batteries, particularly the dynamics of battery technology development and recycling pathways. Herein, we developed a product-component dynamic material flow analysis model for 32 European countries, including the European Union of 28 Member States (EU28), Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Türkiye, and explored their supply-demand gaps for lithium (Li), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn), and nickel (Ni) under various scenarios. We found that achieving 100% electrification in Europe under the “combined mitigation strategies” scenario (i.e., advanced lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery technology, extended battery lifetimes, and shifts toward a smaller car segment) requires a high cumulative demand (2021-2050) for primary Li (2815 kt), Co (398 kt), Mn (397 kt), and Ni (2667 kt). Among various mitigation strategies, deploying advanced LFP battery technology appears to be the most critical for relieving resource pressure. We also reveal a trade-off effect for the second-life use of EV batteries: It may worsen critical material circularity but mitigate the carbon impact for prospective energy storage systems. Our product-component model can be used for other product systems and suggests the need for a systematic framework to maximize the synergies among material, energy, and climate strategies in the e-mobility transition.

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Key words

Electric vehicles / Critical materials / Battery technology / Substance flow analysis / Product-component model

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Wu Chen,Juan Tan,Rui Zhang,Jakob K. Rasmussen,Jakob L. Karlsson,Xin Ouyang,Qiance Liu,Burak Sen,Jakob K. Keiding,Gang Liu. 电动出行转型背景下欧洲的电池材料需求与报废管理[J]. 工程（英文）, 2026, 65(10): 315-325 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2026.05.017