上海港的货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量均已位居世界第一。然而，随着经济的发展对港口需求的增加、周边港口的日益发展、1.8×104箱超大型集装箱船舶及4×105 t超大型散货船的问世，上海港自身的自然条件约束日益显现，尤其是发展的空间几乎枯竭。为了寻找上海港发展的出路，上海各方已做了一些前期工作，形成共识的是在横沙建港较为适宜。本文详细分析了上海港面临的困境，并以上海横沙东滩为依托，构想了上海港未来发展之路。

The cargo and container throughputs of port of Shanghai are both listed the first place in the world. However, with increase needs on port from the economic development, the growing development of the neighboring ports, the advent of 1.8×104 TEU container ships and 4×105 t bulk carriers, Shanghai Port's own natural constraints become increasingly apparent, especially the development of space is almost exhausted. In order to find the way out of Shanghai Port development, some preliminary work has been done, and the consensus is more appropriate for building new deepwater port in Hengsha. This paper analyzes the difficulties which Shanghai Port is faced with in detail, and finally conceives a development path based on the Hengsha east shoal in future.

包起帆（1951—），男，上海市人，教授级高级工程师，主要从事现代物流技术与装备方面的研究