特长海底隧道运营是一个极其复杂的系统工程，存在较大的不确定性和安全风险。根据隧道工程运营期风险评估的一般流程，对渤海湾海底隧道工程在其运营期的风险进行了评估。评估中考虑的主要风险因素有水害、衬砌裂损、冻害、衬砌腐蚀、震害、洞内空气污染、火灾和列车脱轨事故8 种类型。综合运用信心指数法和层次分析法，参照隧道与地下工程风险接受准则和风险等级标准，对渤海湾海底隧道运营期间的风险进行估计与评价。给出了该海底隧道运营期的风险等级，并讨论了本评估工作中尚存在的一些问题和今后有待深入的工作。

The operation of super-long subsea tunnel is a extremly complex system project,has larger uncertainty and safety risk. The procedure of risk assessment was explained in detail,and its application on Bohai Bay subsea tunnel project was proposed as a case study in this paper. Firstly, lots of different risk factors of the subsea tunnel operation were identified systematically, which involved water damage,tunnel lining crack, tunnel freezing,tunnel lining corrosion,tunnel earthquake disaster,the air pollution inside the cave,tunnel fire and the train derailment accident. Then,those operational risks were analyzed and assessed by the confidence index method and analytic hierarchy process, and were classified and discussed gradually according to the risk acceptance criterion. Finally,some topics about risk assessment on the subsea tunnel operational risk needed to the further research were high-lighted here.

王永红（1958—），男，山东青岛市人，教授，主要从事隧道与地下工程方面的研究与教学工作