对长江流域暴雨洪涝预警研究和业务的4个方面, 即暴雨中尺度野外观测科学试验、暴雨中尺度系统形成机理研究、暴雨数值模式预报技术研发以及水文气象耦合模式发展等进行了回顾, 分析了制约长江流域暴雨预报和洪涝灾害预警能力和水平提高的主要因素, 提出了亟待解决的主要科学技术问题及其应对策略。

In this paper, a systematic review was made on the rainstorm flood early warning research and operation in the Yangtze River basin in four aspects, namely, the meso scale rainstorm field observation experiment, the heavy rainfall meso scale system formation mechanism research, the heavy rainfall numerical model forecast technology and the hydro meteorological coupling model. Then, the main factors on restricting heavy rainfall forecast and flood early warning ability and level over the Yangtze River basin were analyzed. Lastly, the main problems of science and technology and its countermeasures were put forward.

崔春光（1964— ），男，湖北洪湖市人，研究员，主要从事暴雨数值预报技术研究