从道路网运行的基本特性入手，着重分析了路网运行的随机波动性、递延传导效应和周期规律性。在此基础上，剖析了迄今国内外一直沿用的道路“负荷度”路网评价理论的局限性，提出一套适用于路网整体实时动态评价的理论和技术方法，解决了无盲区实时数据采集与处理、路网运行时空动态分析、评价指标阈值标定等关键技术难题，为交通战略规划、实时动态路网功况诊断等提供了全新的技术手段，北京市的实证研究初步证明了所提出的理论和技术体系科学、有效、实用。

This paper analyzes the dynamic nature of real-time traffic network performance measurement, with particular focus on random traffic flow fluctuation, traffic deferred conduction effect and traffic periodicity. The limitations of the traditional traffic network evaluation methods based on traffic V/C is discussed; followed by the presentation of a novel approach for real-time traffic network performance evaluation, which solves the previous technical issues such as data collection and processing with no blind region, dynamic spatial-temporal traffic network performance analysis and evaluation threshold calibration. The proposed approach is validated in a case study using the Beijing traffic network, which proves its rationality, efficiency and practicality. The implications of the research and methodologies presented in this paper provide new theories and perspectives for infrastructural planning, dynamic road network performance evaluation, etc.

全永燊（1941—），男，北京市人，教授级高级工程师，主要从事交通规划、交通政策、交通发展战略的研究工作