针对干旱预测的难题，利用揭示大气热结构垂直特征的V-3θ图，分析影响旱区的气流特征。根据国际地球自转服务（IERS）的数据，分析地球极移、章动和转速的变化与大气热结构变化的关系，基于地气动量守恒原理，将大气热结构与地球转动特征变化进行了制约性分析。结果表明，大气热结构异常和地球转动特征引起的冷空气路径变化与大范围干旱有关。

The airflow characteristics impacted on the drought areas were analyzed with V-3θ plot which revealed characteristics of the atmospheric thermal structure. The relationship between the atmospheric thermal structure and the variation of earth rotation (length of day, nutation, polar motion) was analyzed with the update data of IERS. Based on the total momentum conservation of earth and atmosphere, the variations between the atmospheric thermal structure and the earth rotation were restricted to each other. The research results showed that large scale drought was related to the air path change caused by characteristics of atmospheric structure and the earth rotation.

魏鸣（1957—），女，天津市人，南京信息工程大学教授，博士生导师，主要从事灾害性天气的遥感监测与预报研究