鉴于火灾事故的发生受多种复杂因素的影响，并且具有较大的随机性和波动性的特点，笔者等将灰色模型和马尔可夫模型相结合，建立火灾事故的灰色–马尔可夫模型，利用灰色模型的灰色性和马尔可夫模型的随机性来体现各自的优点，并运用该模型对全国农村火灾事故进行预测。实际应用表明，灰色–马尔可夫模型的预测精度明显高于灰色模型的预测精度，完全能满足预测精度的要求，可以较好地用于火灾事故的预测。

The occurrence of fire accidents is influenced by many complex factors, and it has the characteristics of random and fluctuation, so grey model and Markov model are combined together to establish a new Grey-Markov model in this paper .The paper adopts grey model and Markov model to show grey feature and random separately, at last the model is used to predict fire accidents in countryside. The result shows the forecast precision of Grey-Markov model is higher than the forecast precision of grey model, the model can satisfy the demand in forecast precision, and it can be used for fire accidents forecast.

毛占利（1982－），男，河南濮阳市人，中国人民武装警察部队学院讲师，主要从事消防工程专业的教学和科研工作