应用系统科学原理和方法，论证主流地震专家观点“地震本质上不可预测”之不科学、不合理性；阐述“大体估计在一定时空范围，达到事先向群众打个招呼”的观点比较科学合理，并举例简要说明。

The focal point of this paper is to use the principle and method of systems sciences to prove that the standpoint of the mainstream earthquake scientists is unscientific and unreasonable, namely, the earthquake can't be forecasted essentially, and to prove the opposed standpoint is scientific and reasonable, namely, roughly estimate the range of time and location of the strong shock to a certain degree, and lead masses to know beforehand. To have limited space, this paper further proves the conclusion with only 2 examples only.

李世煇（1932－），男，北京市人，中国科学院工程地质力学重点实验室客座研究员，研究方向为岩石力学地下工程