HRT波方法准确预测强震时空强的可行性及其汶川8级等强震的震例
The feasibility of accurate earthquake prediction by HRT wave and examples of strong earthquakes including Wenchuan Earthquake （M ＝8）
潮汐力谐振共振波地震短临预测方法（简称ＨＲＴ 波法）是由震前所记ＨＲＴ 波根据ＨＲＴ 波预测模型，在震前同时测定给出地震三要素（地点、震级和时间）的一种新方法，把孕震过程与前兆产生机理视为“黑箱”，选已知大自然存在的潮汐力波作输入信号；使用专门研发的“ＰＳ －１００”ＨＲＴ 波接收网站记录ＨＲＴ 波（输出信 号），辨识得到与震源区介质状态有关的关系式，建立了ＨＴ 波与ＲＴ 波短临预测模型（ＨＲＴ 波预测模型）。
The method of earthquake short-term and impending prediction by using tidal wave (abbr HRTwave method) is a new, quantitative technology of simultaneous determination of the location, magnitude and time of an earthquake.The earthquake preparation processes and precursor mechanism are considered as a "blackbox" .Using the modern control theory in system recognition, we can calibrate this "black box" mathematically with different input and output parameters.We regard the tidal force as our "input signal" while geoelectric response to the tidal forces is considered as an "output" .
“黑箱”与HRT 波预测模型 / “PS -100”HRT 波接收网站 / 波动前兆的发现及其规律性 / HRT 波模型的实用性
“black box”& HRT wave model / PS-100HRT instrument system / discovery of HRT wave precursor and its regularity / practicality of HRT wave model
赵玉林（1936－），男，河北承德市人，中国地震局地球物理研究所研究员，研究方向为地电学与地震预测
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