地震预测预报的难度大，但并非了无痕迹或不可知，我国每次较大的地震都有案例总结。统计表明，近４０ 年来，有７７ 次地震在发生前均有中期、短期甚至临震预测，不能因为汶川地震预测的失败，就全面抹杀中国的地震预报成绩，即我国的地震预测成绩是应予肯定的，汶川地震也并非是无前兆的“怪震”。

Earthquake is difficult to forecast, but it doesn't happen without signs or unknown,our country has the case summary for every large earthquake.Statistics clearly show that there have been 77 predictions about middle -term, short -term or imminent earthquakes in the last 40 years.Therefore, success in Chinese earthquake prediction could not be denied only because of failure in Wenchuan Earthquake prediction.China's earthquake prediction score should be positive,and Wenchuan Earthquake is not a "strange shock" without any precursor.

高建国（1947－），男，上海市人，中国地震局地质研究所研究员，研究方向为灾害研究