以南京长江隧道工程为背景，提出了基于数量工程技术的风险提示及事故防范方法，即运用数值仿真方法，借助超级计算机的并行计算能力，建立盾构机进出洞，盾构机穿越长江大堤及穿越江中最浅覆土层，两台盾构机同时施工影响，盾构机穿越复合土层等工程关键问题的数量分析模型。基于该模型，对地表沉降过大、盾构机姿态偏移、开挖面失稳等工程风险进行了提示；分析了风险产生的机理、后果；提出了事故防范的措施，评价和验证了防范措施的有效性和合理性。

In Nanjing Yangtze river tunnel project, quantitative engineering was applied to identify and prevent the risk. The numerical simulation method and supercomputing were employed to model the tunneling process in key sections. These key sections including departure and reception of shield machine, crossing flood levee, tunneling through river bed with shallow cover, interaction between two working shield machines, tunneling through composite soil layers were modeled according to the real geological profile. Quantitative analysis of the numerical results forecasted the risks in ground settlements, behavior of shield machine, and stability of cutting face, etc. The causes and consequences of the risks were discussed. After that, methods to prevent the risks were proposed, evaluated, and validated.

钱维（1970－），女，江苏南京市人，南京市长江隧道工程前期办公室副主任，副研究员，博士