对电缆的剩余寿命进行评估是电缆寿命管理的关键环节，以往电缆寿命评估的方法中有Arrhenius方法和Weibull分布模型。对这两种方法分别进行分析，特别是确定Arrhenius模型中激活能的计算，以及应用Weibull分布模型对电缆寿命进行评估。最后以实际电缆的状态监测数据，对简化的Arrhenius模型进行仿真，说明所提出的方法是有效的。

The estimation for state of cable is significant to state of cable management. The famous methods for state estimation of cable are Weibull distribution model and Arrhenius method. The two methods are analyzed and researched. A method for measurement of Arrhenius model activation energy is presented. And the Weibull distribution model is used for state estimation of cable. The simulation based on overhaul data, test data and monitor data of the cables for Arrhenius model shows the effectiveness of the approach.

张铁岩（1962－），男，河北申县人，沈阳工程技术学院教授，博士，主要研究方向为电力系统自动化、故障诊断等