在对电磁轨道发射系统总体分析的基础上，引入情景规划理论，探讨了基于情景规划理论的电磁轨道发射系统总体发展战略。通过对目前世界形势等宏观变量的诊断与分析，结合电磁轨道发射系统的关键技术变量，构造出未来电磁轨道发射系统的三种发展战略模式，并提出了今后的发展战略重点。

In the analysis of the electromagnetic rail launch system.,this paper discusses the general developmental strategy of electromagnetic rail launch system based on the scenario planning theory. Through analyzing the world current situation and the key technical variables of electromagnetic orbit launch system, the paper conceives the three developmental strategy models of future electromagnetic rail launch system and proposes the focus of development strategy.

翟利鹏 (1972-), 男, 吉林吉林市人, 南京理工大学博士研究生, 研究方向为管理决策分析