讨论地震前兆有它自已的孕震物理模型，地震孕育全过程分为加载、相持、卸载、短临和临震５个阶段；多次震例证明，破坏性地震的孕震物理模型是会重复和再现的；提出了追踪地震前兆信息，循序渐进预报地震的分析方法，对地震预报的阶段性进行了实用性的划分，有希望实现对破坏性地震的预报。

What is discussed here is that the earthquake precursor have their own physical model, which is divided into the load stage, the stage of stalemate, the unload stage, the short stage before occurrence and the quake stage. Up till now, numerous earthquakes that occurred worldwide have proved that the quake-breeding physical model of destructive earthquakes may repeat and reappear. An analytic method is brought forward for tracing the information on the warning signs of an earthquake and predicting earthquakes step by step. Also, earthquake prediction is preactically divided into stages, making it possible to realize the predicting of destructive earthquakes.

孙威（1936－），男，吉林延吉县人，北京普精信科技有限公司高级工程师，中国科学院物理研究所客座研究员