评价网络理论在电力公司反应堆建设决策中的应用
Application of Valuation Networks in Making the Decision to Build a Reactor for Electric Power Company
电力公司反应堆建设中的一个决策问题,是如何依据过去经验和试验结果来选取最优的建设方案。评价网络理论(valuation networks)是贝叶斯决策问题表示和求解的新方法。以某电力公司为例,应用评价网络理论,以反应堆建设的决策问题进行分析,给出了决策问题的具体表示和求解的详细过程。
How to use experience and test result to make the best choice is a decision problem for a electric power company when deciding to build a reactor, and valuation networks is a new method for representing and solving Bayesian decision problems. This article used Valuation Networks to analyze the reactor problem of a given company, which valuation network representing and solving process is demonstrated in detail.
decision theory / valuation networks / influence diagrams / Bayesian decision
王华亭(1967-),男,山东东营市人,南京理工大学博士生,南京涌新电子有限公司教授级高级工程师,研究方向:战略管理,管理决策分析
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