通过对灰色预测模型———GM（１，１）的理论分析，证明了该模型的预测值及其变化趋势均具有单调 性，进而提出了GM（１，１）模型的适用性判据，并给出了该判据在火灾风险灰色预测中的应用实例。

Theoretical analysis of grey prediction model GM(1, 1) is present in this paper. Monotonicity of predicted value and its variation tendency predicted by GM(1, 1)model is proved. Based on the monotonicity of predicted value and its variation tendency,  applicability criterion of GM(1, 1) is brought forward.  Example applications of the criterion in fire risk grey prediction are discussed.

陈子锦（1979－），男，安徽省铜陵县人，中国科学技术大学统计与金融系博士生