通过分析我国电力系统负荷变化、水电的特点及水电在电力系统中承担调峰任务的巨大优势，以华东电网的现状为例，重点分析了我 国水电站装机容量确定原则与我国电力系统调峰需求的矛盾，提出了电力系统成本最优的水电站装机容量选择原则，通过峰谷不平衡电价等反 映不同时期电量价值的不同，最后，通过实例研究该原则对水电站装机容量确定的影响，对我国大型水电站装机容量的确定提出新的思考。

This paper investigates the load development of power systems, the characteristics of the hydropower, and the tremendous advantages of the hydropower in peak adjusting of power systems. Using the East China power system as an illustrative example,the inconsistencies in the calculating principle of the hydropower installed capacity and the demand of the power system are assested. A new calculating principle that minimizes the cost of the power system is proposed. The effect of the new calculating principle on the hydropower installed capacity is evaluated by using a real case. The analysis provides significant insights in calculating the installed capacity of large hydropower in China.

熊开智( 1978 一) , 男, 二滩水电开发有限责任公司工程师、博士