鉴于近10多年来运用地球转速的变化做长期灾害天气预测取得的较好效果，试图运用地球的章动、地球转速和大气变化的关系，探索 重大灾害天气的深层次原因。仅就2006年发生在四川、重庆的高温干旱问题，讨论了副热带高压与东风层的关系，进而对地球的章动、转速的变化做了对比分析。结果显示，地球大气的重要灾害天气的发生，不只限于大气本身的原因，而确有可用于天气预测的星体运行的变化信息。

In view of the effective results about the long term disaster weather prediction based on the variation of the earth rotation in the recent 10 years,  the authors try to explore the deep reason of major disaster weather with the re lationship among the earth nutation,  rotation and atmospheric change.  The relationship between the subtropical anticyclone and subtropica l easterlies is discussed,  aiming at the problem of high temperature and drought in the globe.  Further more,  the comparison analysis is made on earth nutation and the variation of rotation.  The research results show that the reasons of important disaster weather not only involre atmosphere itself,  but have some variation information of earth movement which could be used for the weather forecast.

魏鸣( 1957 一) , 女, 天津市人,博士, 南京信息工程大学教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事灾害天气的遥感监测与预报研究