应用趋势型指数平滑模型根据其观测值的数据特点（具线性趋势），选取趋势型二次指数平滑的线性 预测公式和相应at，bt的计算公式及合适的平滑系数值进行计算，预测了某市滑坡区５号监测点的位移量。预 测结果表明，该方法应用于斜坡变形位移的预测，可使预测值与实际位移值之间的误差很小。

Exponential smoothing is an efficient method for forecasting and decision-making.  The forecasting model of exponential smoothing to forecast the displacement at Observation Point 5 of certain city hazardous landslide is applied in this paper. According to the characteristics of observation forecast formula with linear trend of the twice exponential smoothing,  appropriate formulae calculating at,  bt and suitable exponential smoothing value are selected and used to make a forecast. The forecast results show that the errors between the forecast values and the observation values are very little. And it shows that this model may be well applied to the forecast of the displacement in the deformation of slopes.

沈良峰（1968－），男，江苏南通市人，硕士，湖南科技大学副教授，主要从事建设工程管理研究