水电工程施工导流的成败直接影响到主体工程的建设，与导流标准选择密切相关，而导流标准的择优必须综合协调导流建筑物的建设投资、工期、系统风险率及其风险损失。文章系统全面地分析了水电工程施工初期导流标准选择涉及的控制性因素，提出了因素定量化方法，运用多目标决策理论，建立了初期导流标准风险决策模型。通过实例分析，说明导流标准风险因素定量化刻划方法及决策模型是有效的，很好地解决了导流工程工期、投资与风险之间的关系。

For a hydropower project, river diversion planning directly decides the dam construction and has a bearing on the diversion standard. The relations between selection of diversion standard and investment, construction duration, risk and its losses of diversion structures should be coordinated. This paper systematically analyzes the controlling factors of choosing diversion standard during initial construction, and puts forward a quantitative analytic method of the factors. By means of multi-objective decision-making theory, a risk model of river duversuib standard during initial stage construction is established. A case study shows that the quantitative analysis and decision model ave effective, and are of great aid to the handling of the relations between the duration, investment and the risk for diversion construction.