文章简要评述了世界以及中国的电子级多晶硅的生产能力和市场需求。在2000年和2010年中国对多晶硅的需求分别是736 t/a和1304 t/a。但近几年中国的多晶硅生产仅达到80 t/a，所以在中国建设一座年产1000 t电子级多晶硅的工厂是很合理的。然而由最新统计数据可知，自1997年以来，世界多晶硅生产能力连年均超过市场需求，而且在最近的将来，这一趋势将会继续。为了占领国内多晶硅市场，未来的多晶硅工厂将面临挑战，产品质量和生产成本是应当考虑的最重要指标。为了占领国内市场，在保证多晶硅产品纯度的前提下，生产成本只能略微超过20美元/kg。

This paper briefly reviews the electronic grade polysilicon production capacity and market demand in the world as well as in China, It is estimated that in the year of 2000 and 2010 the polysilicon demand in China will be 736 t/a and 1 304 t/a, respectively.

In the recent years, the gross polysilicon production in China is only 80 t/a, so the construction of an electronic grade polysilicon plant in China with a 1 000 t/a production capacity should be resonable. However, referring the newest statistical data since 1997, the world polysilicon production capacity has being exceeded the market demand and the trend will continue in the near future. In order to occupy the domestic polysilicon market the future polysilicon plant will face challenge. The quality of the product and the manufacturing cost are the most important criteria to be considered. Ensuring the polysilicon product purity, the manufacturing cost should be near 20 dollars per kilogram for competition in domestic market.