摘要
The influence of energy intensity on carbon intensity depends upon the fraction of energy mixes with high carbon emissions in the total energy mixes . The correlation of with a variety of primary energy mix fractions and technology advances such as CCS and CCHP is analyzed and deduced. Taking the long-term carbon reduction target in 2050 settled upon by the Copenhagen Agreement and the mid-term target suggested by the “450 Scenes Program” of the International Energy Agency (IEA) as constraints, the new pattern of the energy transition of the world in 2020, 2030, and 2050 are estimated and figured out. The peak value of energy consumption will lag behind the peak value of carbon emissions; the world energy structure shifting point will be in 2020–2025. Estimates show that China’s mid-2020 and long-term targets of energy-saving and emission reduction announced by the Chinese government might be achieved.
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