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Prospect of Medical Disruptive Technologies
Li Yongjie, Yang Juntao, Du Jian
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 64-68 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.010
With the deep integration of modern information, materials and other technologies, the development of medical science and technology has been greatly promoted, and the way of disease diagnosis and treatment has undergone revolutionary changes. This paper mainly analyzes and evaluates five technical directions in tumor immunotherapy, gene editing technology, medical artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and stem cell and translational medicine. Combining literature, think tank reports and expert opinions, the paper explores the direction of medical science and technology development. Finally, the paper puts forward the policy proposals including increasing investment in basic medical research, optimizing the top-level design of medical science and technology strategy, and improving policy and regulatory systems.
Keywords： medical technology disruptive technology tumor immunotherapy gene editing
General Plan Group of Strategic Research on Disruptive Technologies in Engineering Science and Technology
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 1-6 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.001
Disruptive technology has become an important driving force for economic and social development and military revolution. Strengthening disruptive technological innovation is particularly important in realizing development transformation and future strategic initiative in China. The Chinese Academy of Engineering has set up a major advisory project "Strategic Research on Disruptive Technologies in Engineering Science and Technology". This project is aimed to plan the development of disruptive technologies in engineering science and technology in China. The paper systematically introduces the research objectives, contents, and methods of this project, and summarizes the progresses in disruptive technology concept study, forecasting and identifying methods, tracking and early warning of worldwide disruptive technologies, and identification and evaluation of major disruptive technology directions. Meanwhile, the paper also summarizes the experiences and deficiencies in project implementation. All the research contents of the project provide a useful reference for the national strategic research on disruptive technology.
Keywords： 2035 engineering science and technology in China disruptive technology strategic research
Analysis of Disruptive Technology Identification Methods in Foreign Countries
Wang An,Sun Zongtan,Shen Yanbo and Xu Yuan
Strategic Study of CAE 2017, Volume 19, Issue 5, Pages 79-84 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.05.014
Disruptive technologies, which have groundbreaking effects on existing traditional or mainstream technologies, have great potential applications, and are actively recognized and nurtured by all countries. This article summarizes the standard reports on technology identification research released by foreign government agencies, think tanks, intelligence agencies, consulting firms, universities, and patent analysis institutions. It then analyzes and evaluates the disruptive technology identification methods in order to provide reference for the corresponding disruptive technology identification methods in China.
Keywords： disruptive technologies identification methods
Enlightenment of Disruptive Technological Innovation of DARPA
Cao Xiaoyang, Wei Yongjing, Li Li, Zhang Ke, Miao Hongbo, An Xiangchao, Liu Anrong
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 122-128 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.020
As the leader of disruptive innovation, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DAPRA) is followed by more and more countries, governments, as well as large enterprises. They followed the DAPRA's model to set up innovation management. However, almost no achievement comparable with the DAPRA was realized, and no consensus was reached on how to rebuild another noble DARPA. Viewing the experience of many copies of the DARPA, the explicit structure and operation mechanism are the bases of DARPA's success, but not the core. This paper, from the perspective of evolutionary theory, analyses the history of the DARPA, and discusses its success factors in terms of growth environment, competitive situation, interest structure, value pursuit and so on. We conclude that DARPA's success comes from long-term struggle with its development environment, and a strong belief, low selfish departmentalism, a pattern without restrictions from ideas and interests, and a perspective strategic vision are the very important support. From the model of the DARPA, we believe that building a special zone out of the system for innovation management is the key to speed up the disruptive technological innovation.
Keywords： disruptive technology disruptive technology innovation DARPA special zone
Analysis of US National Research Council’s Persistent Forecasting System of Disruptive Technologies
Zhang Xiaolin
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 117-121 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.019
The National Research Council’s (NRC) report on Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies analyzes the key issues of disruptive technology forecasting and proposes an ideal persistent forecasting system model. On this basis, the paper summarizes the connotation and challenges of disruptive technology forecasting, presents the attributes of the ideal persistent forecasting system, and analyzes the system model and its functions. Finally, the enlightenment of the research on disruptive technology forecasting is proposed, thus to provide reference for relevant research work in China.
Keywords： disruptive technologies persistent forecasting ideal forecasting system
Luan Enjie,Sun Zongtan,Li Hui and Jia Ping
Strategic Study of CAE 2017, Volume 19, Issue 5, Pages 74-78 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.05.013
This paper starts by making a qualitative selection of defense disruptive technologies. It considers the features of various defense disruptive technologies and establishes an index evaluation system to carry out a quantitative analysis of the major ones. Based on this, this paper identifies major defense disruptive technologies that can have a huge impact on the space industry. These are expected to greatly improve the efficiency of the space industry, significantly reduce research cost, and lead to a considerable improvement in the current level of space technology.
Keywords： disruptive technologies space efficiency cost
The Research Group of Chemical, Metallurgical, and Material Fields
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 34-41 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.006
The chemical, metallurgical and material industries re-process natural resources to produce materials, chemicals, and secondary energies necessary for human life, thereby providing an important material basis for social development and economic construction. This paper reviews the recognized disruptive technologies in the history of chemical, metallurgical, and material industries, and analyzes the impact of such technologies on people's daily lives, the progress of human society, and the disruption of traditional technologies. According to vision driving, problem orientation, and the world technology development trend, we forecast the future sustainable science development models, which are efficient, safe, energy-saving, and environment-friendly, in the chemical, metallurgical, and material industries, and predict the impacts of possible disruptive technologies on national economy and people’s livelihood. The slurry bed hydro-conversion technology, the metallurgical manufacturing process function expansion technology, grapheme, and other disruptive technologies are proposed. Finally, relevant policies and suggestions are put forward for the cultivation, development, and environment of disruptive technologies.
Keywords： chemical industry metallurgy material disruptive technology national economy and people’s livelihood
Connotation and Selection of Disruptive Technologies that Lead Industrial Change
Sun Yongfu,Wang Liheng,Sun Zongtan,Wang Kunsheng,Hu Liangyuan,Cui Jian,Xu Yuan and Kang Xitong
Strategic Study of CAE 2017, Volume 19, Issue 5, Pages 9-16 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.05.002
Disruptive technologies that lead industrial change have many characteristics, including technological breakthrough, product substitution, market universality, and industrial transformation, all of which have profound impact on social development and people's lives. First, from the industry and technology perspectives, this article proposes the connotation and selection of disruptive technologies that lead industrial change. Next, the corresponding index evaluation system is established. Lastly, through two rounds of questionnaire surveys utilizing qualitative and quantitative methods, this article selects approximately 20 disruptive technologies that are currently leading the industrial change; subsequent analysis provides support for further study on the law between disruptive technology and the industrial revolution, as well as carrying out technical forecasting.
Keywords： industrial change disruptive technologies index evaluation system selection questionnaire survey
Supporting Basic Research by Classification to Promote Whole-Chain Disruptive Technology Innovation
Zhang Huiqin, Ping Jing, Sun Changpu
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 24-26 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.004
In recent years, China has made great progress in science and technology, but still falls behind in terms of key technologies. To promote original innovation in science and technology and fundamentally overcome its weakness in key technologies, China should focus on basic research. To explore how basic research creates disruptive technologies, this paper expounds the connotation of basic research, and categorizes basic research into four types according to its targets: basic research toward major scientific objectives, basic research driven by national demands, talent-based basic research for free exploration, and basic research aimed at practical application. Based on the analysis of the characteristics and development needs of various types of basic research, we put forward a development suggestion of providing differentiated and stable support to promote whole-chain disruptive technology innovation.
Keywords： basic research disruptive technology differentiated support
Summary of Research Progress and Methods of Disruptive Technology in China and Abroad
Sun Yongfu, Wang Liheng, Lu Chunhua, Sun Zongtan, Wang Kunsheng, Xu Yuan
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 14-23 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.003
At present, technological innovation has entered an unprecedentedly intensive and active period worldwide, while some major disruptive technologies are constantly emerging. These disruptive technologies have accelerated the iteration of new industries and formats, are profoundly influencing the balance among national powers, and will contribute in reshaping the world economic structure and the international competition pattern. To seize this opportunity given by the times, countries are now actively engaged in early identification and nurture of disruptive technologies. In this paper, research reports on disruptive technologies in China and abroad are extensively followed, and research progress and methods of disruptive technologies are summarized, analyzed and evaluated. This paper also puts forward some suggestions to promote the scientific development of disruptive technology research in China, including establishment of specialized think tanks by concentrating superior resources, establishment of a scientific technology evaluation system, etc.
Keywords： disruptive technology assessment and prediction methods
Inertial Sensing Disruptive Technology Based on Levitated Optomechanics
Hu Huizhu, Yin Zhangqi, Li Nan, Che Shuangliang, Shu Xiaowu, Liu Cheng
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 112-116 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.018
Levitated optomechanics is the combination of optomechanics and quantum optics. It provides a new quantum method to control and measure micro-nano mechanical oscillator. This method has unprecedented observation accuracy, can approach or even break the standard quantum limit, and has broad development and application prospects. At present, the system has been used to measure the force, torque, displacement, acceleration and other physical parameters with high sensitivity at room temperature. In this paper, the research status of levitated optomechanics and its progress in precision sensing and measurement are reviewed. As a frontier technology developed in recent years, levitated optomechanics has gradually moved from basic research to application, especially in the field of inertial sensing and precision measurement. Finally, suggestions for developing the inertial sensing disruptive technology based on levitated optomechanics are put forward, which can provide reference for the development planning of inertial sensing and quantum precision measurement technology.
Keywords： optomechanics precision measurement inertial sensing disruptive technology
The Strategic Connotation and Policy Enlightenment of the Concept of Disruptive Technology
Liu Anrong, Li Li, Cao Xiaoyang, Wei Yongjing, An Xiangchao, Zhang Ke, Zhang Jianmin, Miao Hongbo
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 7-13 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.002
The concept of disruptive technology has been widely used since it was introduced. And there is no uniform definition due to different research perspectives. Since disruptive technology has transformative effects of defining times and reconstructing patterns, it plays increasingly significant role in national strategy. Understanding disruptive technology from the national perspective has a practical guiding significance in the development of disruptive technology. After explorations on the concept of disruptive technology from different perspectives, this paper points out that developing disruptive technology from the national perspective opens up a new technology trajectory based on new principles, combinations, and applications of science and technologies. It is a strategic innovative technology that will reorganize value network of the traditional industries, decisively affect the upgrading of social technology systems, or reconstruct present national foundations, capabilities, and structure. Furthermore, a deconstruction framework of disruptive technology is proposed from the perspectives of source, structure, span, scale, level, and path. On this basis, to develop disruptive technology, this paper proposed to focus on the combination of frontier research and practical use, the process, the balance between reality and future, innovative management modes, and strategic research.
Keywords： disruptive technology concept national perspective
Research on Disruptive Technologies in Railway, Hydraulic, and Architectural Engineering
Wu Wenling, Lu Hailu, Hou Baodeng, Yan Denghua, Dong Liang, Pan Yongjie
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 42-49 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.007
Every technological and energy revolution in history was accompanied by the emergence of disruptive technologies. Therefore, it is of great significance to study disruptive technologies for the future development of various fields. This paper analyzes the development directions and trends of railway, hydraulic and architectural engineering, and points out that the development direction of railway engineering is intelligent and higher-speed development; the development direction of hydraulic engineering is conforming to nature and human-nature integration; and the development direction of architectural engineering is to be precise, professional, mechanized, informationized, assembled, and eco-friendly. On this basis, this paper summarizes the disruptive technologies in these three fields. The disruptive technologies in the railway field include intelligent high-speed railway, low vacuum pipeline maglev railway; the disruptive technologies in the hydraulic field include the construction technology of basins with rich natural functions, and the multi-objective joint dispatching technology of water resources and hydropower projects; and the possible disruptive technologies in the architecture field include BIM-based intelligent building technology, industrial building technology, 3D printing technology, and green building technology. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions to provide reference for the research and development of railway, hydraulic, and architectural engineering.
Keywords： railway engineering hydraulic engineering architectural engineering disruptive technology
Foresight of Disruptive Technologies in Agricultural Engineering
Wang Dong, Chen Yuanquan, Li Daoliang, Zhu Wanbin, Tan Weiming, Du Taisheng , Tian Jianhui, Kang Shaozhong
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 57-63 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.009
This study was the preliminary results of the "Research on Disruptive Technologies in the Agricultural Field" under the Consulting Research Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. Our report mainly focused on those active fields in current and future technological innovations including agricultural biotechnology, agricultural information technology and nanomaterial technology. Specifically, five critical directions were investigated in the report, consisting of animal and plant breeding, agricultural biotech medicine and bio-fertilizer, agricultural biomass engineering, intelligent agricultural technology, and non-traditional planting space. Through the analysis of conferences, patents, interviews, and literatures, the development directions of disruptive technology in the agricultural field were suggested. Hopefully, our results can provide references for the development investment of the government and enterprises as well as research directions of scientists.
Keywords： science and technology in agricultural engineering disruptive technologies strategy research
Development and Prospects of Disruptive Technologies in Environmental Monitoring
Liu Jianguo, Meng Deshuo, Gui Huaqiao, Yin Gaofang, Zhang Fu, Zhang Shu, Zhang Hongzhen, Wang Jinnan
Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6, Pages 50-56 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.008
Environmental monitoring technology is an important foundation for supporting and ensuring environmental management. Analyzing and predicting the development trend of disruptive technologies in environmental monitoring is helpful to accelerate China's ecological civilization construction and environmental protection. This paper combines literature measurement and patent intelligence analysis methods to comprehensively analyze and evaluate the history and latest situation of disruptive technologies in environmental monitoring in China and abroad. According to the major demand for environmental monitoring technology by China's environment protection development, this paper puts forward the multi-media environment and ecosystem sensing technology based on big data fusion, micro-intelligent environmental element sensing technology based on new materials and devices, fast online monitoring technology for environmental trace pollutants based on spectral mass spectrometry, and high-resolution remote sensing technology based on satellite remote sensing for regional/global ecological environment elements, so as to provide a decision-making basis for China's environmental management and development planning of its environmental protection industry.
Keywords： environmental monitoring disruptive technology development status future expectation
Title Author Date Type Operation
Project Review of Strategic Research on Disruptive Technologies in Engineering Science and Technology
General Plan Group of Strategic Research on Disruptive Technologies in Engineering Science and Technology
Journal Article
Analysis of Disruptive Technology Identification Methods in Foreign Countries
Wang An,Sun Zongtan,Shen Yanbo and Xu Yuan
Journal Article
Enlightenment of Disruptive Technological Innovation of DARPA
Cao Xiaoyang, Wei Yongjing, Li Li, Zhang Ke, Miao Hongbo, An Xiangchao, Liu Anrong
Journal Article
Analysis of US National Research Council’s Persistent Forecasting System of Disruptive Technologies
Zhang Xiaolin
Journal Article
Prospects for the Promotion and Application of Defense Disruptive Technology in Developing the Space Industry
Luan Enjie,Sun Zongtan,Li Hui and Jia Ping
Journal Article
Preliminary Study on Impact of Disruptive Technologies in Chemical, Metallurgical, and Material Fields
The Research Group of Chemical, Metallurgical, and Material Fields
Journal Article
Connotation and Selection of Disruptive Technologies that Lead Industrial Change
Sun Yongfu,Wang Liheng,Sun Zongtan,Wang Kunsheng,Hu Liangyuan,Cui Jian,Xu Yuan and Kang Xitong
Journal Article
Supporting Basic Research by Classification to Promote Whole-Chain Disruptive Technology Innovation
Zhang Huiqin, Ping Jing, Sun Changpu
Journal Article
Summary of Research Progress and Methods of Disruptive Technology in China and Abroad
Sun Yongfu, Wang Liheng, Lu Chunhua, Sun Zongtan, Wang Kunsheng, Xu Yuan
Journal Article
Inertial Sensing Disruptive Technology Based on Levitated Optomechanics
Hu Huizhu, Yin Zhangqi, Li Nan, Che Shuangliang, Shu Xiaowu, Liu Cheng
Journal Article
The Strategic Connotation and Policy Enlightenment of the Concept of Disruptive Technology
Liu Anrong, Li Li, Cao Xiaoyang, Wei Yongjing, An Xiangchao, Zhang Ke, Zhang Jianmin, Miao Hongbo
Journal Article
Research on Disruptive Technologies in Railway, Hydraulic, and Architectural Engineering
Wu Wenling, Lu Hailu, Hou Baodeng, Yan Denghua, Dong Liang, Pan Yongjie
Journal Article
Foresight of Disruptive Technologies in Agricultural Engineering
Wang Dong, Chen Yuanquan, Li Daoliang, Zhu Wanbin, Tan Weiming, Du Taisheng , Tian Jianhui, Kang Shaozhong
Journal Article
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