High-Speed Railway Train Timetable Conflict Prediction Based on Fuzzy Temporal Knowledge Reasoning

He Zhuang, Liping Feng, Chao Wen, Qiyuan Peng, Qizhi Tang

Engineering ›› 2016, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (3) : 366-373.

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Engineering ›› 2016, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (3) : 366-373. DOI: 10.1016/J.ENG.2016.03.019
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High-Speed Railway Train Timetable Conflict Prediction Based on Fuzzy Temporal Knowledge Reasoning

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Abstract

Trains are prone to delays and deviations from train operation plans during their operation because of internal or external disturbances. Delays may develop into operational conflicts between adjacent trains as a result of delay propagation, which may disturb the arrangement of the train operation plan and threaten the operational safety of trains. Therefore, reliable conflict prediction results can be valuable references for dispatchers in making more efficient train operation adjustments when conflicts occur. In contrast to the traditional approach to conflict prediction that involves introducing random disturbances, this study addresses the issue of the fuzzification of time intervals in a train timetable based on historical statistics and the modeling of a high-speed railway train timetable based on the concept of a timed Petri net. To measure conflict prediction results more comprehensively, we divided conflicts into potential conflicts and certain conflicts and defined the judgment conditions for both. Two evaluation indexes, one for the deviation of a single train and one for the possibility of conflicts between adjacent train operations, were developed using a formalized computation method. Based on the temporal fuzzy reasoning method, with some adjustment, a new conflict prediction method is proposed, and the results of a simulation example for two scenarios are presented. The results prove that conflict prediction after fuzzy processing of the time intervals of a train timetable is more reliable and practical and can provide helpful information for use in train operation adjustment, train timetable improvement, and other purposes.

Keywords

High-speed railway / Train timetable / Conflict prediction / Fuzzy temporal knowledge reasoning

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He Zhuang, Liping Feng, Chao Wen, Qiyuan Peng, Qizhi Tang. High-Speed Railway Train Timetable Conflict Prediction Based on Fuzzy Temporal Knowledge Reasoning. Engineering, 2016, 2(3): 366‒373 https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENG.2016.03.019

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (U1234206 and 61503311). We acknowledge support under the Railways Technology Development Plan of China Railway Corporation (2016X008-J) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2682015CX039). Parts of this work were supported by the National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation. We are grateful for useful contributions made by our project partners.
He Zhuang, Liping Feng, Chao Wen, Qiyuan Peng, and Qizhi Tang declare that they have no conflict of interest or financial conflicts to disclose.
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