Interconnection Gridlock Threatens Transition to Renewable Energy

Emma Hiolski

Engineering ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5) : 3 -5.

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Engineering ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5) :3 -5. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2024.04.007
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Interconnection Gridlock Threatens Transition to Renewable Energy
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Emma Hiolski. Interconnection Gridlock Threatens Transition to Renewable Energy. Engineering, 2024, 36 (5) : 3-5 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2024.04.007

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Emma Hiolski
Senior Technology Writer
In October 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report identifying inadequate grid infrastructure as a key threat to meeting the climate goals laid out by the Paris Agreement [1], the landmark 2015 international treaty in which 196 parties agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels [2]. Importantly, funding for the treaty’s called-for transition from fossil fuels to clean energy has accelerated [3], with recently legislated massive governmental subsidies and other incentives (e.g., the Inflation Reduction Act [4]) aimed specifically at promoting renewable energy. However, a commensurate surge in investment in electrical grids has not materialized; instead, it has stagnated for the past decade at around 300 billion USD per year worldwide [1].
This is a big problem. While new grid infrastructure typically takes five to 15 years to plan, permit, and complete, the same process takes one to five years for new renewable energy projects, and less than two years for new electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure [1].
“We must invest in grids today or face gridlock tomorrow,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a press release accompanying the report [5]. The report concludes that more than 8 × 107 km of electrical grids worldwide must be added or refurbished by 2040 (the equivalent of the entire existing global grid); without this improved infrastructure, delays in the transition to renewable energy will prolong reliance on fossil fuels and could put the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C out of reach [1]. To achieve this goal, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest climate change synthesis report, released in March 2023, states that carbon emissions must be nearly halved by 2030 and global emissions must reach net-zero by 2050 [6], [7].
The IEA report flagged interconnection queues, the lines in which proposed renewable energy projects await connection to electrical grids, as one of the biggest bottlenecks in the transition to clean energy, with a minimum of 3000 GW of renewable energy projects (1500 GW in advanced stages) languishing in such queues around the world [1]. Most of this backlog resides in the United States, where, at the end of 2022, some 10 000 projects representing more than 2000 GW of mostly zero-carbon energy production and storage were seeking interconnection [8].
After a proposed renewable energy project files an interconnection request to enter the queue, the grid operator must initiate a series of “interconnection studies” to identify any system upgrades needed to safely connect the project to the grid. Projects can be studied separately, or in a cluster with other, co-located projects. When the studies are complete, grid operators assign interconnection costs to each project; projects may be withdrawn at any point or go on to enter an interconnection agreement with the grid operator and begin working toward commercial operation.
Upgrades to the grid identified in these studies are often extensive and involve adding transmission capacity to existing power lines or building new lines altogether. Current US grid infrastructure primarily consists of alternating current lines, but the large-scale transfer of renewable energy from high-production regions to areas of high demand is best served by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines, which handle more capacity, lose less power per kilometer [9], and can better handle the variability in output from wind and solar farms [10].
Uncertainty about study results is one key factor in increased interconnection wait times, according to James McCalley, professor of power system engineering at Iowa State University (Ames, IA, USA). Developers often have an idea of where the nearest transmission corridor is, relative to their proposed site, but do not know whether and where transmission must be upgraded and/or newly added. “You have to wait until the study goes into play in order to find out,” McCalley said.
In the United States, adding to the uncertainty, the cost of upgrading or installing new infrastructure is usually assigned to developers. This added expense knocks many projects out of contention, causing the need for re-analysis of any remaining projects in a cluster and further increasing wait times [8]. And if projects are forecast to impact neighboring grids, those grid operators may also conduct “affected-system studies” and developers could be liable for further upgrade expenses [11].
Interconnection studies in the United States now take roughly three years to complete [8]. Given the uncertainty about study outcomes and increasing interconnection delays, many developers file multiple requests simply to gain a place in line [11] and begin finding the best place to seek interconnection [12]. Many projects also take advantage of low barriers to queue entry to secure a spot in line in hopes of a larger company buying them out, according to Joshua Rhodes, a research scientist with the Webber Energy Group at the University of Texas at Austin (Austin, TX, USA). All of this has contributed to ballooning queues and a drop in completion rates [8].
In an effort to reform the interconnection process, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) released Order 2023 on 27 July 2023 [12]. The new rules shift interconnection from a “first-come, first-serve” serial study process to a “first-ready, first-serve” cluster model, wherein higher viability projects are prioritized over more speculative projects and co-located projects are grouped together for study rather than being analyzed singly (a model already used by many grid operators) [12]. The order also seeks to hold regional transmission organizations (RTOs), which administer grids on a regional basis throughout North America, more accountable for meeting interconnection study deadlines and improving the transparency of the process [12].
Order 2023 also requires RTOs to assess alternative transmission technologies, like grid-enhancing technologies (GETs), which can offer quicker solutions at lower cost than traditional network upgrades (Fig. 1) [12]. Dynamic line ratings, for example, use local weather conditions to calculate and adjust the amount of current that transmission lines can carry without overheating; lines can carry substantially more electricity on cooler, windier days [10], [13]. Other hardware and software solutions can re-route power away from potentially overloaded transmission lines to others with more available capacity [13]. While these technologies can help bring renewable energy online quicker and make use of the existing grid, they are primarily short-term solutions. “Grid-enhancing technologies should be on the table, but for the wind and solar energy transformation we are in the middle of right now, that is not a substantive way to think,” said McCalley. “To go from 20% to 60% renewables, you have to think big transmission.”
Some countries have already begun investing in high-capacity transmission lines to move renewable energy across vast distances. In 2019, China installed an ultra-HVDC line that can carry 1100 kV across 3293 km from the northwest to the east of the country, part of a network of 22 ultra-HVDC lines now installed throughout China [9].
Though the United States lags China’s progress in this area, a September 2023 report commissioned by Americans for a Clean Energy Grid, a Washington, DC, USA-based nonprofit advocating for modernization and expansion of high-voltage grids in North America, identified 36 “shovel ready,” high-voltage transmission projects close to breaking ground [14]. The report estimates the transmission projects could interconnect roughly 187 GW of new renewable energy, and notes that improving connectivity across regions also boosts grid resilience in the face of increasingly extreme weather events, like the 2021 winter storm that caused prolonged blackouts across the state of Texas [15].
Some innovators are suggesting bypassing the grid in favor of standalone, self-sufficient technology. For example, the Wind & Solar Tower (Orlando, FL, USA) is a hybrid wind-plus-solar power generator that engineer Jim Bardia, its developer and patent-holder, claims could provide off-grid clean energy to remote and urban locations alike [16], [17]. The tower uses an eggbeater-style windmill, oriented on a vertical axis, capped with a solar panel array to generate electricity, 1 MW of which can be stored in onsite batteries. While Bardia initially envisioned the towers providing clean energy to rural farmers [17], he also suggests they could be used to power EV charging stations (Fig. 2), potentially mitigating some of the interconnection congestion facing EV charging infrastructure [18].
Though the transition to clean energy is an increasingly dynamic landscape, both McCalley and Rhodes were cautiously optimistic about meeting climate goals. McCalley pointed out that most US RTOs did not exist 25 years ago, and that they have since played a huge role in coordinating, planning, and operating grids. A key factor to keep in mind, he said, is that building transmission “is a socially complex web of interaction between lots of different stakeholders. And it takes a lot of time to do it.”
Rhodes cited human ingenuity as part of the reason for his optimism, while emphasizing the need for accompanying policy changes. “Economics and markets are only going to pull so hard,” Rhodes said. “We will need policy to push it the rest of the way. We do have some of that with the Inflation Reduction Act, but I do not think peoples’ energy choices will be enough to get us to a carbon-free future.”

References

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