Energy Transition Risk Assessment: Concepts, Indicators, and Methodological Issues

Peng Zhou , Guang-Xiao Wan , Wen Wen , Qing Zhu

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Energy Transition Risk Assessment: Concepts, Indicators, and Methodological Issues
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Abstract

Effective identification and assessment of various energy transition risks are essential for ensuring energy security. This study conducts a systematic review of the literature on energy transition risk assessment, with three principal objectives: ① establishing a standardized risk taxonomy, ② analyzing the characteristics of current assessment methodologies, and ③ identifying the priority research directions. First, energy transition risks are structured into two categories: implementation risks and consequential risks. Subsequently, assessment methodologies are categorized into five methodological groups: the indicator approach, probabilistic risk assessment approach, econometric approach, simulation approach, and hybrid approach. This analysis reveals a growing scholarly focus on consequential risks, particularly those affecting the energy system and economic system. The evolution of research shows a progression from macro-level analyses to micro-level investigations, accompanied by methodological advancement from simple indicator approach to the more sophisticated computational models. Future research may prioritize investigating multi-risk interactions and developing comprehensive assessment frameworks to address the complex risk landscape faced by diverse stakeholders in the energy transition.

Keywords

Energy transition / Risk assessment / Indicator / Simulation model / Probabilistic risk assessment

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Peng Zhou, Guang-Xiao Wan, Wen Wen, Qing Zhu. Energy Transition Risk Assessment: Concepts, Indicators, and Methodological Issues. Engineering DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2025.10.009

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