Should Flexible Mixed Polyolefins Be Sent to Mechanical or Chemical Recycling? A Technology-Agnostic Analysis Based on a Sustainability–Circularity Index

Merel Molenbuur; Cris Garcia-Saravia Ortiz-de-Montellano; Steven De Meester; Yvonne van der Meer; Milad Golkaram; Kim Ragaert

doi:10.1016/j.eng.2025.12.044

Engineering ›› :202512044 DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2025.12.044

research-article

Should Flexible Mixed Polyolefins Be Sent to Mechanical or Chemical Recycling? A Technology-Agnostic Analysis Based on a Sustainability–Circularity Index

Merel Molenbuur ^a^,^#
, Cris Garcia-Saravia Ortiz-de-Montellano ^a^,^b^,^#
, Steven De Meester ^a^,^c
, Yvonne van der Meer ^b
, Milad Golkaram ^a
, Kim Ragaert ^a^,^*

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Abstract

Flexible mixed polyolefins (fMPOs) represent a significant portion of post-household plastic packaging waste, which is currently—at best—recycled into durable, thick-walled products via mechanical recycling (MR). However, the upcoming chemical recycling (CR) pathway of pyrolysis is highly suitable for fMPOs, which may cause future feedstock conflicts. In this work, the availability of fMPOs in 2030 across three scenarios with various potential allocations to MR and CR is assessed. The findings for all three scenarios show insufficient fMPOs to satisfy the 2030 demands of both MR and CR, even if the available feedstock for recycling increases by 25% and the (mass-balanced as fuel-exempt) pyrolysis efficiency reaches 90%. Life-cycle assessments and the product circularity indicator are applied from a product perspective, using a thick-walled bench and flexible packaging as representative case studies for MR and CR, respectively. The results are integrated into a sustainability–circularity index (SCI)—a novel metric that reflects the circularity gained per euro of environmental cost for a given functional unit. In terms of sustainability, MR consistently delivers lower environmental impacts and higher circularity, with mechanically recycled benches outperforming benches made of both virgin high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and cast iron, and performing on par with benches made of sustainably sourced wood. Although CR enables food-grade recycled content, its environmental benefits remain modest, particularly at low recycled-content percentages (<50%). Overall, these results emphasize that prematurely prioritizing CR may limit the availability of feedstock for long-lived applications and increase reliance on higher-impact materials.

Keywords

Flexible mixed polyolefins / Recycling / Sustainability / Circularity

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Merel Molenbuur, Cris Garcia-Saravia Ortiz-de-Montellano, Steven De Meester, Yvonne van der Meer, Milad Golkaram, Kim Ragaert. Should Flexible Mixed Polyolefins Be Sent to Mechanical or Chemical Recycling? A Technology-Agnostic Analysis Based on a Sustainability–Circularity Index. Engineering 202512044 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2025.12.044

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