Spatiotemporal Evolution of River Runoff Across Major Water Regions in China: Observed Trends and Regional Disparities (1960–2024)

Yueyang Wang; Jianyun Zhang; Zhenxin Bao; Junliang Jin; Guoqing Wang

doi:10.1016/j.eng.2026.05.002

Engineering ›› :202605002 DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2026.05.002

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Spatiotemporal Evolution of River Runoff Across Major Water Regions in China: Observed Trends and Regional Disparities (1960–2024)

Yueyang Wang ^a^,^b
, Jianyun Zhang ^b^,^c^,^d^,^*
, Zhenxin Bao ^b^,^c^,^d^,^*
, Junliang Jin ^a^,^b^,^d
, Guoqing Wang ^b^,^c^,^d^,^*

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Abstract

River runoff is a key component of surface water resources and is essential for water resource manage- ment because of its dynamic variability and long-term changes. However, research focusing on the most recent decade, a period characterized by rapid environmental change, remains limited. Moreover, tradi- tional trend assessment methods based on absolute runoff values often limit meaningful comparisons across basins with contrasting hydrological conditions. To address this limitation, we proposed a unit- normalized runoff index (URI), a standardized metric designed to facilitate robust cross-basin compar- isons of runoff variability. Using observational data from 24 hydrological stations across ten major water regions in China from 1960 to 2024, we identiﬁed pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity in run- off dynamics. The results showed signiﬁcant declines in annual runoff in the Haihe, Yellow, Huaihe, and Pearl River basins, whereas increases were observed in the northwestern endorheic river basins, the Liaohe River basin, and most Qinghai–Xizang Plateau rivers, particularly in snowmelt-dominated sys- tems. In contrast, annual runoff remained generally stable in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Songhua River basins. Seasonal analysis revealed widespread increases in winter runoff across many basins, whereas extensive decreases were observed in summer and autumn. Stations in western China showed consistent increases throughout all seasons, most notably at Changmabu and Zhimenda. Conversely, stations in the Haihe and Yellow River basins exhibited year-round declines. Although long-term records (1960–2024) continue to reﬂect the classic ‘‘south-abundant/north-deﬁcie nt” pattern, recent trends (2010–2024) indicate a notable shift, including increased runoff in the north- west and northeast, continued water scarcity in North China, and emerging declines in southern regions. Collectively, these changes indicate a transition from a pattern of ‘‘western increase, northern depletion, and southern stability” to one characterized by ‘‘continued western gain, partial northern recovery, and emerging southern drying.” These ﬁndings improve understanding of long-term hydrological variability in China and provide a scientiﬁc basis for developing regionally differentiated and adaptive water resource management strategies under changing climatic and anthropogenic conditions.

Keywords

Runoff / Unit-normalized runoff index / Major rivers / Evolution trends / Spatiotemporal variation patterns

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Yueyang Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Zhenxin Bao, Junliang Jin, Guoqing Wang. Spatiotemporal Evolution of River Runoff Across Major Water Regions in China: Observed Trends and Regional Disparities (1960–2024). Engineering 202605002 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2026.05.002

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