Outburst Floods Redefine Design Floods for Critical Infrastructure in High-Mountain Rivers

Shihao Xiao; Jian He; Ruochen Jiang; Xin He; Yingyue Han; Ruiqiang Bai; Luyu Ju; Limin Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.eng.2026.10.005

Engineering ›› :202610005 DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2026.10.005

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Outburst Floods Redefine Design Floods for Critical Infrastructure in High-Mountain Rivers

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Abstract

Design floods serve as safety standards for critical infrastructure and flood protection. Conventionally, they are estimated from historical precipitation and streamflow records and therefore largely represent meteorological floods. However, in high-mountain rivers, this practice can severely underestimate actual flood hazards because the most catastrophic events are often geomorphically triggered outburst floods. Here, we present evidence that outburst floods can generate peak discharges that far exceed local 100-year meteorological floods and even surpass the global meteorological flood envelope. We further show that the

Keywords

Design flood / Glacial lake outburst flood / Landslide lake outburst flood / Flood frequency analysis / Cascading hazards / Critical infrastructure

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Shihao Xiao, Jian He, Ruochen Jiang, Xin He, Yingyue Han, Ruiqiang Bai, Luyu Ju, Limin Zhang. Outburst Floods Redefine Design Floods for Critical Infrastructure in High-Mountain Rivers. Engineering 202610005 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2026.10.005

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