基于城市安全“风险源 ‒ 承灾体 ‒ 减灾力”理论的城市新型风险分类研究

中国工程科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4) : 71 -81. DOI: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2025.05.005

我国城市安全韧性技术发展战略研究

崔文惠 ¹^,²^,³ ,
刘雪敏 ¹^,²^,³ ,
岳清瑞 ¹^,²^,³^,⁴ ,
施钟淇 ¹^,²^,³ ,
杨晓春 ⁵ ,
周琳 ¹^,²^,³ ,
杨梓 ¹^,²^,³ ,
蔡博文 ¹^,²^,³ ,
岳一 ⁶ ,
周毅 ⁴ ,
许镇 ⁴

作者信息 +

Classification of New Urban Risks Based on "Risk Source ‒ Risk Exposure ‒ Mitigation Force" Theoretical Framework

Wenhui Cui ¹^,²^,³ ,
Xuemin Liu ¹^,²^,³ ,
Qingrui Yue ¹^,²^,³^,⁴ ,
Zhongqi Shi ¹^,²^,³ ,
Xiaochun Yang ⁵ ,
Lin Zhou ¹^,²^,³ ,
Zi Yang ¹^,²^,³ ,
Bowen Cai ¹^,²^,³ ,
Yi Yue ⁶ ,
Yi Zhou ⁴ ,
Zhen Xu ⁴

Author information +

文章历史 +

PDF (1160K)

摘要

新一轮科技革命和产业变革的不断发展在为社会提供强大发展动力和支撑平台的同时，也给国家安全和城市安全治理带来一系列新型风险；然而，城市新型风险具有陌生性、高度不确定性、动态更迭等特征，传统城市风险的研究体系已无法满足新型风险治理的需求，亟需搭建城市新型风险的研究范式和知识体系。本文系统总结了国内外新型风险的概念演化和研究现状，剖析了当前城市新型风险治理面临的挑战；基于城市安全“风险源 ‒ 承灾体 ‒ 减灾力”理论，构建了新型风险的辨识和分类框架，并从新型风险驱动因素的角度，提出了当前需要关注的7类新型风险，即气候变化风险、新材料风险、新能源风险、新信息技术风险、新生物医药风险、新空间结构风险、新业态风险。为积极应对城市新型风险带来的挑战，研究建议，强化顶层设计，深化科学理论研究；提升忧患意识，构建新型风险工作机制；推动技术创新与风险治理协同演进，统筹安全与发展；健全标准规范体系，构建多主体协同治理框架，以期更好推动安全可靠的韧性城市建设。

Abstract

The ongoing technological revolution and industrial transformation not only provide robust momentum and a supportive platform for societal development, but also introduce a series of new risks to national security and urban safety governance. These new urban risks are characterized by unfamiliarity, high uncertainty, and dynamic evolution, and the research system for traditional urban risks can no longer meet the needs of new risk governance, necessitating a research paradigm and knowledge system for new urban risks. This study analyzes the conceptual evolution and research status of new urban risks in China and abroad, and examines the challenges faced in current new risk governance. Based on the “risk source‒risk exposure‒mitigation force” theory for urban safety, it constructs an identification and classification framework for new urban risks, and from the perspective of driving factors, proposes seven major types of new urban risks that need attention at present, namely climate change, new material, new energy, new information technology, new biomedicine, new spatial structure, and new business form risks. To address the challenges brought by these new urban risks, the study suggests strengthening top-level design to deepen theoretical research; enhancing crisis awareness to build a new risk working mechanism; promoting the coordinated evolution of technological innovation and risk governance while balancing safety and development; and improving the standards system to establish a multi-subject collaborative governance framework, thereby promoting the construction of safe and resilient cities.