我国城市安全韧性发展现状与技术发展方向展望
Development Status and Technological Prospects of Urban Safety Resilience in China
当前,全球气候变化加剧,极端自然灾害频发,相应影响呈现跨领域、跨区域的系统性风险特征,对城市安全治理提出了新的重大挑战,因而评估我国城市系统性风险防控与安全韧性建设的现实基础及发展走向、构建面向未来的技术发展战略框架成为亟需。本文从管理决策层、基层执行层、社会协同层、关键区域4个维度出发,深入分析了我国韧性城市治理的短板;系统梳理了城市安全韧性理论研究进展、我国城市安全韧性技术应用现状,进而明确了我国城市安全韧性技术攻关要点;提出了应急管理 ‒ 业务连续性管理融合决策模型,支持构建“感知 ‒ 认知 ‒ 决策”三维韧性技术路径。研究认为,人工智能与无人装备应用、数字孪生技术驱动、可持续发展推动、技术与管理一体化、跨学科协同创新是推进我国城市韧性建设的主导方向,可为提升城市灾害防控能力、强化系统韧性、保障安全运行提供理论依据与技术指引。
Currently, global climate change is intensifying, extreme natural disasters occur frequently, and the corresponding impacts exhibit characteristics of cross-domain and cross-regional systemic risks, posing new and significant challenges to urban safety governance. Therefore, it is urgently needed to assess the current status and development trends of systemic risk prevention and control and safety resilience construction in cities of China, and to construct a future-oriented technological development framework. The study analyzes major challenges regarding resilient urban governance in China from four dimensions: management decision-making, grassroots implementation, social collaboration, and critical regions. Moreover, it reviews the current theoretical research on urban safety resilience and the progress of technology application in China, and then clarifies the key areas for technological breakthroughs. A decision-making model that integrates emergency management and business continuity management is also proposed, supporting the construction of a resilient technology path that involves three dimensions: perception, cognition, and decision-making. Furthermore, the study proposes the leading directions for promoting the construction of resilient cities in China: application of artificial intelligence and unmanned equipment, development driven by digital twin, sustainable development promotion, integration of technology and management, and cross-disciplinary collaborative innovation. These directions are expected to provide a theoretical basis and technical guidance for enhancing disaster prevention and control capabilities, strengthening system resilience, and ensuring safe operation of cities.
城市安全韧性 / 系统性风险防控 / 防灾减灾 / 数字孪生 / 智能决策
urban safety resilience / systemic risk prevention and control / disaster prevention and mitigation / digital twin / intelligent decision-making
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