黄河几字弯区是我国现代煤化工产业战略核心区，其可持续发展面临严峻的水资源约束。本文综合考虑区域宏观社会经济发展态势、国家与区域能源战略与规划、现代煤化工技术发展与市场趋势等多重因素，采用“自下而上”的产品定额法，对黄河几字弯区现代煤化工产业中长期用水趋势进行了研判，并总结了产业发展面临的主要问题。研究发现：当前黄河几字弯区现代煤化工产业发展存在水资源先天不足、节水技术存在瓶颈与非常规水资源利用不足、当前供水能力无法满足未来现代煤化工产业发展要求三方面挑战。基于以上判断，提出了拓宽水资源供给空间、强化水资源管理与利用、推动现代煤化工技术创新的现代煤化工适水发展战略路径。

The Jiziwan region in the Yellow River basin serves as the strategic core of China's modern coal chemical industry; however, sustainable development of the region is severely constrained by limited water resources. This study considers multiple factors, including regional macro socioeconomic development trends, national and regional energy strategies and plans, as well as technological and market development trends in the modern coal chemical industry. We adopt a bottom-up, product-based water demand estimation method to project medium- and long-term water use trends in the region and identify key challenges to the sustainable development of the regional coal chemical industry. Our findings highlight three major constraints: an inherent shortage of water resources; bottlenecks in water-saving technologies and under-utilization of unconventional water sources; and insufficient water supply capacity to meet the demands of future industrial expansion. In response, we propose strategic pathways for water-adaptive development: expanding the diversity of water supply sources, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of water resource management, and advancing technological innovation in the modern coal chemical sector.